In 2025, moviegoers in the US and Canada bought 769.2 million tickets, about two per person. This is less than half of the amount bought in 2002. Ticket sales are down 40% since 2019. The COO of Alamo Drafthouse said, “the industry just flatlined.”
Books aren’t much better. 36% Americans say they read fewer books than they did a decade ago. Accounting for inflation, book sales are shrinking.
Live events don’t look great either (just keep reading, trust me). Gen Z drinks less, does fewer drugs, is lonelier, has less sex, and prefers to sit at home alone. Only 39% are interested in attending music festivals, whereas 46% said they were in 2019. More than 12% of US nightclub venues closed within two years. More than a third of Brits between 16 and 24 years of age didn’t drink once in 2021. Restaurant traffic fell every month of 2025 except for July. Large chains are closing locations. Six Flags, and other theme parks, are bleeding. US inbound tourism is falling. Airlines are seeing less flights. Malls are closing. Print newspaper circulation is down 60% since 2000 (which makes me so sad). CDs are dead, vinyl is seemingly dead. Golf is withering away, with courses closing every month. Board games are in decline.
But the Seesaw Theory explains why all of these industries are about to face a major tailwind, not because tech is doomed to fail, but because it is doomed to succeed.
What we’ve observed among young people around the country is clear: the more technology invades our everyday lives, via social media, streaming, chatbots, AVs, etc…the more people become economically rebellious.
If we modeled the economy in a purely quantitative fashion, all signs would point to those named industries being in permanent decline. We’ve literally created “better” and “more efficient” versions of all of them. But at the end of the day, economies contain humans, not equations. And humans are, inherently, unpredictable (predictably so).
The Seesaw Theory contends that the more technology invades our lives, and the more capable it becomes, the more people will put their phone down and go outside. They will go to theme parks, read paperback books, go to movie theaters, eat dinner out, travel, and listen to vinyl.
Vinyl is an interesting example of this. It appeared to be lifeless. By 2004, vinyl was 0.2% of total US recorded music revenue. Now, in 2025, it’s up 9.3% YoY and is in the 19th consecutive year of growth. It’s never going to reach it’s prior heights of the 20th century, but that doesn’t mean it’s dead. That’s the key sentence. Vinyl is now about 7.5% of US recorded music revenue.
Gen Z is playing an outsize role in this trend with their purchases growing an average 18% every year over the past five years. About 60% of Gen Z claims to buy records. Gen Z is 27% more likely than the average music consumer to buy vinyl, despite being born into a Spotify era.
The Seesaw Theory says that we are going to see this happen with all the industries named before. I’m going to list a handful of them below:
Live music: concerts, festivals, residencies
Movie theaters: regular screenings, especially mods like 70MM
Broadway and live theater
Stand-up comedy: arena comedy is the new class
Live sports attendance and minor leagues like banana ball
Theme parks
Museums, galleries, and blockbuster exhibitions
Live podcast tapings and author events: parasocial relationships are huge, which we will discuss soon
Religious services
Weddings and formal events
Supper clubs, chef’s counters, and tasting menus
Food halls and night markets
Karaoke, mini-golf, darts and billiards, bowling, golf
Escape rooms, immersive experiences
Run clubs, marathons, Hyrox, obstacle courses, Iron Man
Dance classes, climbing gyms, pilates, yoga, workout classes, rec sports leagues
Vinyl records and turntables
Physical books and independent bookstores
Film photography
CDs and cassettes
DVDs and Blu-rays
Print magazines
Boardgames and RPGs
Trading cards and TCGs
Mechanical watches
Fountain pens, stationery, paper planners, journals and notebooks
Analog music instruments
Secondhand and vintage fashion
Dumbphones and minimalist tech
Retro gaming
Puzzles, model kits, LEGO
Independent coffee shops
Craft breweries and non-alcoholic craft
Bakeries and artisan food
Butchers, farmers markets
Pottery studios, woodworking classes
Tattoo industry
Bespoke tailoring
National parks and hiking
Camping and RVs
Fishing, hunting, foraging
Skiing, surfing, outdoor sports
Gardening
Wellness retreats, silent retreats, digital detox
Saunas and bathhouses
Long haul trains
Cruises
Boutique hotels
Libraries
etc…
We’ve got theses on all of these. Going to write about them each soon. Please email me at jaspergny@gmail.com if you’d like to talk about any particular one. Love to talk about what we’re seeing.
Thanks for reading, and as always, stay curious folks!
—J&E
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