🌐 US Planning "Blitzkrieg"?

Hi Global Recap readers,

I was about to start today’s newsletter by saying not much new is happening between Iran and the US (relatively speaking), which is why I’m digging into some of the hopium floating around and getting your take.

Then this broke: “A Saudi-owned cargo ship was hit in Bab el Mandeb.”

That matters even more now that Turkey, a NATO member, and Pakistan are tied into Saudi defense, as discussed yesterday…

That said, let’s get into US reparations demands and Iran saying it’s “aware” of possible US ground-invasion plans. 👇

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Trump Flips Reparations

US President Trump demanded reparations from Iran after Tehran made compensation for war damage one of six conditions for fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

He is now seeking payment for people Iran killed and wounded over the years.

* Status Update

So, where are we in this war right now?

• Strait of Hormuz: Trump says the US Navy has swept the “entire” strait of mines and now controls it “100 percent.” But traffic still isn’t exactly back to normal. Just 6 vessels crossed Monday, compared with a 10-day average of around 11.

• Negotiations: Iranian FM Araghchi says formal talks with the US still haven’t resumed. And Iran doesn’t exactly sound eager. Majid Shakeri, an adviser to Iran’s parliament speaker, says Trump isn’t getting a deal and Iran should simply wait out his presidency.

* Grand Plan?

When asked what’s next for Iran, Trump gave one of his favorite non-answers:

“You’ll find out.”

But his answer is still giving many people hope. Especially because Mohammad Marandi, a former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team, is now saying that Iran is “aware” that US forces across several Gulf states are mobilizing for a potential “blitzkrieg,” possibly alongside Israel. 👇

And this is where the online theories split pretty hard:

• Trump’s critics: All these “leaks” make it look like the administration is a mess behind the scenes. Infighting, ammo running low, Trump supposedly being open to ending the war without a nuclear deal. Trump talks big and there’s no real plan.

• Trump supporters: They think the exact opposite. The leaks are part of the plan. Why are all these stories suddenly coming out at the same time? Their theory is that the US wants to look divided and worn down while it’s actually building up forces and getting ready to hit Iran hard one last time.

* Poll

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Refinery Strike Kills 13

A Ukrainian drone strike hit Nizhnekamsk in Russia’s Tatarstan region early Monday, killing 13 people and injuring 75, according to the latest Russian count. Ukraine confirmed its forces targeted the Taneco oil refinery, about 750 miles east of the Ukrainian border, where a fire broke out.

🇱🇾 LIBYA
Drones Hit Oil Hub

A string of drone attacks has been hitting Libya’s Zawiya oil complex. This is the country’s biggest operating refinery.

• The latest strike landed near an oil tank and pipelines, after an earlier attack set fire to a tank holding about 4.5 million liters of gasoline and caused it to collapse.

• Libya’s state oil company says it could shut the 120,000-barrel-a-day refinery if the attacks keep coming.

• No one has claimed responsibility, and the latest strike caused no casualties or material damage.

🇹🇷 TURKEY
A Pardon for Peace

Turkey’s parliament passed a law creating the legal framework to dismantle the PKK and bring thousands of former militants back into civilian life.

MPs approved it 468-88, but its benefits only kick in after Turkey’s National Security Council verifies the group has fully disarmed.

• The 12-article law can suspend sentences or put some investigations and trials on hold for 5 or 10 years.

• Anyone convicted of intentional killings and some prisoners serving life sentences are excluded (including jailed PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan).

• Ocalan called for disarmament in February 2025, the PKK agreed to dissolve in May, and fighters later staged a symbolic weapons-burning ceremony in northern Iraq.

📌 Context. Ocalan founded the PKK in 1978, and the group launched its armed insurgency against Turkey in 1984. More than 40,000 people have been killed over the decades. Turkey tried peace before, but that process collapsed in 2015.

The PKK is still designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US and EU.