🌐 Praising a Nuclear Dictator

Hi Global Recap readers,

While researching stories to write today, President Trump gifted a breaking news. He’s reducing the planned joint military exercises with South Korea, supposedly because of his cordial relationship with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

There are ramifications and some tinfoil theories (of course). And I also think it’s the perfect excuse for me to talk about one involving why Xi might fear giving his military live ammunition.

We are starting with a long one today (+ a poll).👇

🇰🇷🇺🇸 SOUTH KOREA & US
Kim Gets His Break

President Trump just ordered the Pentagon to substantially reduce the Ulchi Freedom Shield (August 17-27) exercises with South Korea just as the 11-day drill was starting.

In his Truth Social post, he praised his “very good relationship” with nuclear-armed North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, called the exercises hostile, and took a jab at South Korea for refusing to join his campaign against Iran.

• The drills still began August 17 with about 18,000 South Korean troops. The US also keeps roughly 28,500 troops permanently stationed in South Korea.

• Just days earlier, North Korea launched 2 ballistic missiles and threatened a strong response to the Ulchi exercises.
  

* Three Ways To Read It

But the issue is… North Korea isn’t just any other rogue nuclear-state. It is also sending its troops to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine, while also supplying Moscow with weapons and ammunition.

Against: Critics see a huge contradiction.

• Trump initially launched the Iran war with the justification that a rogue state cannot be allowed to threaten the world with nuclear weapons (which North Korea has been doing for years).

• And now, he’s publicly reassuring an actual nuclear-armed dictatorship that’s actively helping Russia attack Ukraine and threaten NATO, while cutting back exercises meant to deter it.

For: Trump’s defenders say the US spends billions and keeps tens of thousands of troops in South Korea to protect it, only for it to say “No thanks!” when Trump wanted help against Iran. His supporters see this as South Korea being reminded that American protection can’t always be one-way.

Middle: Then there’s the off-ramp theory that the US and South Korea may have quietly coordinated a way to cool things down without either side openly backing down.

• This is because South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has just proposed peace talks with North Korea in order to formally end the Korean War.

• Also, Trump didn’t cancel Ulchi exercises outright and South Korea didn’t abandon it either. Scaling it down gives both governments a way to signal restraint without “officially” folding to North Korea.

• Critics think this theory’s a stretch though. No South Korean government wants to look like it’s being sidelined by the US in favor of North Korea, and no US administration wants to make its influence on the peninsula look weaker.

* Pacific Carrier Gap

Meanwhile, the USS George Washington is leaving the western Pacific for the Middle East to relieve the exhausted crew of USS Abraham Lincoln. This means the western Pacific is temporarily without a US aircraft carrier.

Critics warn that this is giving China an opening in the region.

The biggest issue is Taiwan. The US intelligence community says Xi has instructed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.

• However, others argue that China prefers cheaper tools for now, including political influence, infiltration, and information campaigns within Taiwan. And the US knows this.

• Another theory goes further, speculating that Xi is reluctant to give his army real ammunition because he fears a coup. It’s still just a widely circulated rumor, but paired with China’s recent purge of senior military leaders, it’s feeding this theory that the US sees no immediate invasion threat and feels more comfortable temporarily leaving the Pacific thin.

* Poll

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Russia’s Amazon Burns (Again)

Ukraine is continuing to hammer Wildberries (Russia’s biggest online retailer), with repeated drone strikes on its warehouses.

• Since mid-July, at least 20 sites have been hit, making smoke-filled skies a regular sight in Russia.

• Ukraine says Wildberries supports Russia’s war effort by handling military and dual-use goods.

• However, the company denies involvement.

🇪🇸 SPAIN
They Won’t Go Back

Hundreds of illegal immigrant protested on Sunday in Ceita, Spain, demanding asylum. They are refusing to be returned to Morocco.

• Roughly 5,000-8,000 illegal immigrants who entered from Morocco are still there after tens of thousands crossed from Morocco in late July.

• Many are sleeping in makeshift conditions.

• Meanwhile, Spain is trying to process the fallout.

📌 Context. A day earlier, Moroccan forces arrested nearly 300 others trying to reach Ceuta after online calls for another mass crossing, while videos circulating Sunday showed more people still attempting to cross the border.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Allies Blame Trump

Persian Gulf allies are reportedly losing patience with US President Trump over the Iran war, with Arab and Western officials reporting that frustration is growing as the US struggles to secure peace.

Some Gulf governments have reportedly begun debating the value of continuing to host large US military installations

• Saudi Arabia’s newly signed Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan shows the broader push for more regional security independence (though the Houthis tested that theory almost immediately, and nobody showed up).

• Gulf governments supposedly warned against the February attack and have since faced Iranian missiles, drones, and threats to critical infrastructure.