Grading our 2024 Predictions

The year 2024 seems worlds away given the tumultuous start to 2025. Our hearts are breaking for everyone affected by the devastating Los Angeles fires. A list of resources for those impacted by the fires can be found here.

Buoyant is preparing to publish our 2025 outlook, but before we do, we wanted to reflect on how well we did with our 2024 predictions. As venture capitalists, it’s our job to spot and predict trends so we can identify successful investment opportunities.

As a sneak peak, our most accurate prediction was on the rising demand for data centers with decarbonization taking a backseat. Read our full self-assessment of how accurate our crystal ball was last year here. Below is a summary.

• Trend: Rapid growth in energy demand driven by AI workloads; decarbonization remains challenging.

• Grade: A+

• Trend: 2024 will be hotter than 2023, with severe El Niño impacts including record-breaking heatwaves, floods, and wildfires.

• Grade: A

• Trend: Thawing permafrost will raise health and environmental concerns.

• Grade: C

• Trend: Global emissions will continue to rise in 2024, surpassing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.

• Grade: A

• Trend: Growth in carbon capture, hydrogen, and domain-specific AI applications (e.g., energy, manufacturing).

• Grade: A

• Trend: Profitability prioritized in Series B and IPOs. Many startups will raise bridge rounds.

• Grade: A

• Trend: Advancements in storage chemistries boost EV efficiency and grid storage.

• Grade: A

• Trend: Declining credibility of low-quality offsets; growing focus on insetting strategies.

• Grade: A

• Trend: Nuanced solutions in AgTech, real estate, and energy sectors expected.

• Grade: C

• Trend: Diverging responses to climate commitments amid ESG backlash.

• Grade: A

Stay tuned for our 2025 outlook.

Buoyant welcomed Sunairio to the Buoyant boat! Sunairio is delivering high resolution climate simulations for energy traders, project developers and utilities. See more on Why We Invested here.

Allison Myers, co-founder of Buoyant Ventures, stepped down from the fund at the end of 2024. We will always be deeply grateful to her for all she put into building Buoyant, and wish her nothing but success with what’s next. Read our letter to Allison here.

• This Economy Is Too Good for Donald Trump by Paul Krugman

• Generative AI – The Power and the Glory by Michael Liebreich, BloombergNEF

• Climate change is showing its claws report by MunichRe

• Trump’s cabinet picks confirmation hearings. A recap on Chris Wright, Trump’s pick for Secretary of Energy, is here.