Adobe (ADBE) has had a turbulent year. Once viewed as a high-certainty compounder with unrivaled creative software dominance, the stock has been weighed down by fears that generative AI could erode its moats, compress growth, and undermine long-run margins. But in periods like this—when sentiment often decouples from fundamentals—Adobe historically has offered some of its best long-term entry points.
Below is my detailed analysis on Adobe’s recent performance, why AI fears look overstated, how capital allocation protects long-run cash compounding, and how a fair value emerges from conservative assumptions.
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