The Diesel Crisis Nobody Is Talking About – Is Your Country Next?

Diesel is the lifeblood of the global economy.

It powers the trucks that move our food, the ships that carry our goods, and the generators that keep our lights on.

Right now, we’re seeing a collapse in global diesel supplies.

This isn’t a theoretical crisis. It’s already hit.

And with End Times Bible Prophecy subscribers in 128 countries, the key question is, “Which countries are next?”

According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, diesel is “at the epicenter” of a global fuel supply crunch, with July global diesel exports dropping by 35%.

This drop assures an incredibly tight market as the Northern Hemisphere moves into a seasonal October demand surge, which the International Energy Agency anticipates will spike global fuel demand “by more than 8 million barrels per day from the May low point, putting it above 2025 levels for the first time since February.”

A number of reasons contribute to this problem. As OilPrice.com reports in “Goldman Sachs: Diesel Crunch Is Now the Biggest Threat in Oil Markets“:

“The biggest oil supply squeeze is currently in diesel markets amid the lowest global refining activity for this time of year since the 2020 pandemic, Goldman Sachs says.

War-induced refinery outages in the Middle East and Russia have collapsed global fuel supply, especially of diesel, while increased output in the Americas and Africa has managed to offset only about a third of lost supply, Goldman’s commodity analysts wrote in a note carried by Bloomberg.”

According to OilPrice.com, global refining output declined 6.5 million barrels per day in July 2026 compared to July 2025. For diesel specifically, that translates into 2.6 million barrels per day – a drop in global diesel exports of approximately 35%.

To put this in perspective, the world produced the equivalent of around 28 million barrels per day of diesel in 2025.

Losing 2.6 million barrels per day equates to 9.2% of the entire global diesel supply.

In other words, for every 11 gallons of diesel in 2025, 1 of those gallons just disappeared.

This is a crisis which will hit the global economy hard.

Last week, executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol warned about diesel and gasoline supplies:

“There is no room for complacency on oil security amid the escalation in hostilities and a continued drawdown of available commercial inventories,” he said. “Refinery activity and product supplies have not picked up as much as crude deliveries, meaning that markets for refined oil products, including diesel and gasoline, are considerably tighter than those for crude.”

Again, this isn’t theoretical. It’s hitting right now.

On Tuesday, Moldova declared a 30-day state of alert over dwindling diesel supplies. The declaration gives the government power to introduce emergency measures, including implementing “more flexible pricing rules reflecting actual import costs, priority customs procedures for petroleum products, green border corridors to speed up deliveries, and measures to prevent speculative purchases at fuel stations.”

Notice the last part of that sentence – measures to prevent “speculative purchases” at fuel stations. What does that mean? It means rationing or limits on what a customer can buy.

As CE Energy News reports:

The situation has been worsened by a regional diesel shortage caused by the suspension of Kazakh crude oil deliveries through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiisk, re-export restrictions in Bulgaria and disruptions to oil infrastructure in the Black Sea region.

As a result, commercial diesel stocks in Moldova have fallen from the equivalent of 17.6 days of consumption at the end of June to 6.9 days, requiring careful management of available supplies.

And Moldova is not alone…

Pakistan is seeing a surge in demand for both gasoline and diesel, while supplies of both dwindle.

As PakBiz reports:

“Officials say petrol use jumped sharply this month. In the first two weeks of July, petrol consumption rose nearly 20 percent compared to last year, while diesel demand climbed about 40 percent above the five-year average. Analysts link part of this rise to a drop in smuggled fuel from Iran, since the price gap with local fuel has narrowed.”

Oil marketing companies began rationing supply to pumps in mid-July. Pakistan also issued minimum-fuel flight advisories for jet fuel. Officially, Pakistan has 14 days of gasoline and 21 days of diesel.

If there’s any doubt how serious the situation is, we have this – an official government denial.

Again, as PakBiz reports:

“Despite these warning signs, the government says there is no real shortage. Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Ahad Cheema chaired a high-level meeting this week to review fuel supplies. He told officials that Pakistan holds enough petroleum stock and assured the public that supply will not be disrupted.”

Myanmar is currently experiencing strict, nationwide diesel and gasoline rationing. Motorists must use QR codes and barcodes at gas stations to purchase fuel. Purchases are strictly limited based on vehicle engine size.

Russia is the world’s #2 seaborne diesel exporter and responsible for around 11% of global diesel supply. But right now, Russia is grappling with domestic fuel shortages which have impacted around one-third of its population with hours-long queues reported through July.

Russia is one of the primary reasons for the diesel crisis. It imposed a full diesel export ban on July 8th, after Ukrainian drone strikes crippled its refineries and triggered domestic fuel shortages. The ban was set to run through yesterday (July 31st) with only pre-existing government-to-government deals like Mongolia exempt.

As of July 25th, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow will lift the ban “in due course” once the domestic market recovers. But Russia is simultaneously extending its separate gasoline export ban through year-end — a sign Russia’s domestic fuel crisis is far from resolved.

The longer Russia maintains its ban on diesel exports, the worse the situation will become.

The diesel crisis has already hit hard in the aforementioned countries. But the more urgent question is this – which countries are next?

Here’s a list of countries on the brink of diesel shortages right now, as well as a list of countries likely to face them later in the year…