Well, what an astonishing result! Reform have exceeded all expectations – including their own – winning 1 MP, 2 Mayors, 10 councils and 677 councillors! The Tories and Labour were utterly destroyed, failing to win a single council between them. The Tories lost all their 16 councils together with 676 councillors and Labour lost the only council they had and 186 councillors.
Even the crumbs that the Tories and Labour did pick up are not all they seem. In Doncaster, Labour lost the council to Reform and only held on to the mayoralty by their fingertips (with 32.6% - compared to 43.3% in 2021 - just 1% ahead of Reform's 31.6%), thanks to the sitting Labour mayor having an unusually-good local record and running on an anti-Labour government platform! In the west of England, Labour again held on, but their share of the vote fell from 33.4% to 25%, and Reform came second with 22.1% beating the Greens, despite these being highly-fancied in this area and having a local MP (in Bristol). And in North Tyneside Labour squeaked in with 30.2% (compared to 53.4% in 2021), just ahead of Reform on 29.4%.
As for the The Tories, although they won the mayoralty of Cambridgeshire & Peterborough, their vote share fell from 40.5% in 2021 to just 28.4% this time round, and Reform, not Labour or the LibDems, were second (with 23.4%). No wonder Badenoch, the Tory leader, admitted the results were a “bloodbath”!
Just a year ago people were saying that Reform's problem was that they were spread too uniformly and thinly across the country. That's the reason they only won 5 MPs at the general election despite getting 4.1 million votes – more than the LibDems, who got 72 MPs with only 3.5 million votes. But now, while Reform's support is still spread across the country, they have reached a level of electoral popularity that means they can win almost everywhere. The reason for this is that while last year they only took votes form the Conservatives – who were hated because of their 14 years of failure and betrayal – they are now taking votes from Labour too – who are hated because of their failures and betrayals!
So Reform took the county of Doncaster from Labour, as well as Durham, where Labour were the largest party, and the counties of Kent, Derbyshire, Lancashire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and both North and West Northamptonshire from the Conservatives. They also ended up as the largest party in Leicestershire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire and Cornwall, and the second-largest party in Northumberland, Shropshire, Gloucestershire, Devon and Cambridgeshire (where they are equal second with the Tories). Only in four councils – Wiltshire, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire – are Reform today not either the biggest or second-biggest party. Astonishing.
In addition, Reform won two mayoralties: Greater Lincolnshire, where former Tory minister Andrea Jenkyns got a massive 42% of the vote, and nearby Hull and East Yorkshire, where former Olympic gold medal boxer Luke Campbell got 35.8%. And, of course, Reform snatched the Westminster seat of Runcorn and Helsby from Labour. Yes, Reform only won by 6 votes, but a win's a win, and Reform achieved a huge swing of 17.4% to overturn a massive 14,700 Labour majority and take one of Labour's safest seats. A similar swing at the next general election would see 254 Labour MPs lose their seats (including 'Retard Reeves'!). Incredible.
The local election share of the vote was Reform 31%, the Conservatives 23%, the LibDems 17%, Labour 14% and the Greens 9%. But these councils were not, of course, typical of the entire country, so Sky News did some psephological calculations and estimated that, in a general election, Reform would get 32%, compared to 19% for Labour, 18% for the Tories and 16% for the Libdems, which would give Reform 405 MPs – giving them a stonking 160 majority in the House of Commons! Even the BBC, who did a similar exercise but with slightly different results, concluded that Reform would get 376 seats in parliament – a majority of 102. An alternative calculation, based on Reform's performance in Runcorn and Helsby, estimates they would have 420 MPs – a majority of 190. Amazing.
And you need to remember that Labour and the Tories conspired to cancel elections that were due in the counties of East Sussex, West Sussex, Essex, Thurrock, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Suffolk and Surrey. These elections will now be held next year instead. Most of these councils were predicted to be very strong Reform areas, so their real level of support is probably even higher than commentators are claiming!
So is Farage heading for Downing Street? 'Not so fast!', the cynics will say. They will compare Reform's current triumphs to the ultimately ephemeral victories of UKIP, or of the SDP in the 1980s. But there are crucial differences between those former parties that shone brightly before fizzling out and today's Reform. UKIP were a single-issue party that was never as successful as Reform in either Westminster or local elections, and which, in any case, lost its shine when Farage left and its raison-d'etre once Leave won the referendum. As for the SDP, their success was short-lived simply because they too became irrelevant once they persuaded Labour to move back to the centre ground. At that point there was no longer any reason to vote for the SDP, and it became irrelevant and merged with the Liberal party in 1988, creating today's LibDems.
If the Tories had elected Robert Jenrick as leader after the election they might have been able to put an end to Reform like Labour did to the SDP – by simply occupying their territory and using our first-past-the-post electoral system to crush them. But they didn't. They elected the no-policy-Nigerian Badenoch instead. History turns on such small details. Just as modern British history might have been completely different – with no Leave referendum and hence no Brexit – if Farage had died in his plane accident in 2010. Napoleon wanted lucky generals – he would have loved Farage!
Indeed, although Farage complained bitterly (and understandably so) about the local elections that were postponed, I suspect that even this will actually work out in his favour, as Reform will go into those elections with more momentum and more campaigning experience, and so are likely to do better than they would have done this year. It will also mean that Farage – who is the party's main electoral asset – will be able to spend more time campaigning in these areas, thus boosting the party's results even more. If ever a man had the luck of the devil, that man is Nigel Farage!
So celebrate, by all means, but not too much – because in many ways the real work starts now. You see the problem for Reform is this: they are no longer an opposition party that can just whinge about how bad everything is. They are now in office and must prove that they can do better. One of the Left's main criticisms of Farage and Reform is that they has no experience of governing and would be unable to actually deliver on their promises. The obvious riposte is to say: 'look around Birmingham and tell me how well politicians with 'experience' have done at managing the country!'
But the truth is that being in control of a council is a big challenge – especially when the council officers are all left-wingers who hate you and want to sabotage you. That is the position that Reform will find themselves in. The other parties do not need to have councillors of great intellect or ability, because the council officers are there to help them. But in Reform's case the officers will be trying to undermine them. I wonder if Reform's new councillors, who have no experience of dealing with these devious council snakes, are intelligent enough to understand this? If you know any Reform councillor you must warn them! Send this article to them and get them to subscribe – as you should! It is FREE, after all!
So what will Reform do now they are in office? Farage has already made it clear that they want to "reduce excessive expenditure" and will oppose diversity and net zero policies. “Reform-controlled councils will be where DEI goes to die”, the party has said. They will also try to stop the government "plonking scores of young men" in asylum hostels in their areas – although the problem here will be that these hostels have been booked on long legally-binding contracts. If Reform have any sense they will also look into the investments being made by the council pension funds. Many of these are targeted towards net zero projects rather than being focused on simply maximising returns. I haven't heard Reform mention this so, again, if you know one of these councillors do point this out to them!
Reform are now at a fork in the road. If they take the right path and make a success of the councils they control, and of their mayoralties, they will be virtually assured of victory at the next general election. If they screw up, they – and the country as a whole – will be fucked. It's a huge opportunity, but also a huge risk. It's win or lose with no middle way. Because here is the crucial fact that nobody has mentioned: these councils will come up for election again in four years' time – in May 2029. And that's when the next general election will be held. So peoples' perception of how competent Reform are, and whether they can be trusted to run the country, will depend entirely on how well they run these councils. EVERYTHING depends on this. The stakes could not be higher. Does Farage understand this?
So my advice to Reform is this: invest all your party's monies on a centralised pool of financial consultants, lawyers and management advisers, and use these to guide your councillors in how to run their local authorities. Reform needs to set up a hit team of advisers and consultants who will do nothing else except travel up and down the country, going to all Reform's councils, meeting with both councillors and officials, and making sure that the services are delivered in the most effective and efficient way possible. Get a reputation for good management and everything else will follow. On the other hand, get a reputation for failure and incompetence and … well, I think you probably can finish that sentence for yourselves.
This is the opportunity of a lifetime, guys. Don't waste it!
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