Brass Tacks
[Note: this piece is still very much a draft, but (a) I thought it might be useful enough to the occasional person that it was worth posting, and more proximately, (b) I needed to post something for a blog-a-thon I was hosting. However, as such, it’s
For the purposes of this transcript, some high-pitched clicking sounds have been removed. The below is an otherwise unedited transcript of an interview between Dwarkesh Patel [1] and a bat. DWARKESH : Thanks for coming onto the podcast. It’s great to have you— BAT : Thanks for having
Memoria 2025 was a one-day, ~120-person unconference/festival on spaced repetition , incremental reading , and memory systems , held at Lighthaven in Berkeley, CA, on September 22, 2025, and organized by Saul Munn and Raj Thimmiah . The goal of this post is to provide context on the event — what
(this is geared toward events of size 50-5000, and probably a lot less useful for e.g. a casual gathering with 5-10 friends than e.g. a 100-person weekend conference.) do before anything else: goals, date, and venue. why figure out goals, pick a date, and pick
Epistemic status: splitting hairs. Originally published as a  shortform ; thanks  @Arjun Panickssery  for telling me to publish this as a full post. There’s been a lot of recent work on memory. This is great, but popular communication of that progress consistently mixes up active recall
Unfortunately, advice has caveats.
Alex Lawsen used a great metaphor on the 80k After Hours podcast : [1] [1:38:14] …you’re rowing a boat on your own, and you’re trying to get somewhere, and you’ve got some map that you need to look at to see where
when i come across good quotes, i write them down. the below are those i collected between my last quotes post and the day i published this — november 19, 2023 through august 5, 2024. [T]he work that needs to be done is not a finite list of tasks,
This is a cross-post of a piece I wrote for the Manifold Substack; here's a link to the original post. I'm helping to run this, and I would be delighted to see you there! TLDR Manifold  is hosting a festival for prediction markets: 
This post is not titled “Things You Should Do,” because these aren’t (necessarily) things you should do. Many people should not do many of the items on this list, and some of the items are exclusive, contradictory, or downright the reverse of what you should do
Let’s say you’re a billionaire. You want to have a flibbleflop, so you post a prize: Make a working flibbleflop — $1 billion. There begins a global effort to build working flibbleflops, and you see some teams of brilliant people starting to work on flibbleflop engineering.
Hello! No big essay or anything. I built a map of the prediction market and forecasting ecosystem, inspired by similar maps of related fields . I want a good reference for people who want to get into the prediction market & forecasting community, so I made one. Take a peek: predictionmarketmap.
0. Readme (or don't) This is not a literature review. I'll vouch for links with an associated archived link, author name, and summary, but not the others. Last updated: Dec 2023 1. Overviews Impact Markets: The Annoying Details ( a ), Scott Alexander Comprehensive description of impact markets,
0: Navigation I’m aiming for a reader who knows what “prediction markets” and “adverse selection” are, who likes the first and not the second, and who enjoys systems that have neatly aligned incentives. For a primer on prediction markets, read Scott Alexander’s
when i come across good quotes, i write them down. the below are those i collected between october 2022 and november 2023. It is  much, much easier  to pick out a way in which a system is sub-optimal, than it is to implement or run that system