Recent content on Boaz Sobrado's Website
Co-written with Claude Last October I posted a thread on X about Hungary’s immigration surge. The data has since been updated with January 2026 numbers from the Hungarian Statistical Office (KSH). The picture has only become more striking. Despite Viktor Orbán’s anti-immigration rhetoric, Hungary now has 252,000 foreign nationals. Nearly double the pre-COVID level. Why Did Hungary…
We are now living in a post-AI world.
Este artículo es una traducción al español (con ayuda de IA) de un hilo original publicado en X por @maxxmalist. Llevo más de un año produciendo contenido generado con IA: anuncios UGC, creativos de video, campañas en redes sociales, páginas de ventas, lanzamientos completos de marca. Y lo único que puedo decirte con certeza es que la mayoría de la gente que está aprendiendo sobre contenido con IA…
Co-written with Claude In August 2019, Revolut froze my accounts (both personal and business) without warning. What followed was a year-long saga involving hundreds of documents, automated customer service responses with the same typo, false information from support agents, and eventually a county court claim that Revolut settled. I’ve never written about it publicly before. Now that Revolut…
This post was co-written with Claude Code. I wanted to track my screen time across all my devices in a way that I actually owned the data. Apple’s built-in Screen Time is fine, but you can’t export it, query it, or build custom visualizations. So I sat down with Claude (in Claude Code) and we built a system that extracts screen time data from both my Mac and iPhone, stores it in a…
Columbus landed in the New World in 1492. By the 1520s—barely thirty years later—the Spanish had established significant colonies across the Caribbean and devastated entire indigenous populations. I knew the conquest was fast, but I hadn’t fully grasped just how fast. Within less than a century, European powers had conquered the continent. Bartolomé de las Casas’s writings are some of…
Last year I wrote about BISQ hitting record highs. Those records have since been smashed. Q2 2024 saw over 60 million dollars in volume, and 2025 sustained those levels throughout the year. The XMR/BTC pair continues to dominate. As Monero got delisted from centralised exchanges, traders moved to the one venue that couldn’t be shut down. Fiat volumes are also at all-time highs, with BRL now…
No muchos países han logrado pasar del Tercer Mundo al Primero. Singapur lo hizo, y su fundador, Lee Kuan Yew, tuvo la gentileza de escribir un libro sobre cómo lograrlo. América Latina es una región que necesita urgentemente una guía sobre cómo entrar al Primer Mundo desde un entorno postcolonial. Irónicamente, el libro “From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965–2000” (De…
After several years of playing chess on Chess.com, I decided to download my complete game history and analyze my patterns. With 4,836 games played between 2020 and 2025, the data reveals some fascinating insights about my chess journey. The Activity Patterns: Peaks and Valleys The most striking pattern in my chess activity shows distinct peaks and valleys. My chess obsession reached its zenith in…
The chart above by the World In Data is a striking piece of data visualisation, showing us how lung cancer and cigarette sales are strongly related to each other. However, given that cigarettes are also an appetite suppressant, I have always wondered what the chart would look like if we include obesity rates. Obesity started becoming a problem more or less when cigarette sales started to drop.…
An in-depth conversation with Doug from MoneroTalk about my Forbes article “Monero: Keeping Bitcoin’s Cypherpunk Dream Alive” and the real-world applications of privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. Topics include crypto adoption in Cuba, the resilience of Monero through delistings, and the future of digital cash. Video Full Interview Transcript Host (Doug): What’s going on…
An in-depth conversation with Tom Ollerton (Founder of Automated Creative) about marketing analytics and the future of data-driven marketing. Key topics include: Learning from 100-year-old marketing books for timeless insights Daily data analysis practices for developing marketing instincts Predictive modeling of conversion events to optimize advertising algorithms Understanding incrementality in…
The chart tracks the frequency of “Bitcoin obituaries” - articles declaring Bitcoin’s demise - from 2010 to 2024. The number of such articles peaked dramatically in 2017 with 124 publications, coinciding with Bitcoin’s first major price surge. Since then, obituaries have steadily declined, reaching just 2 articles in 2024 despite Bitcoin crossing $100,000. This reduction in…
In Hammurabi’s ancient Babylon, rulers were already worried about capping interest rates to protect borrowers from exploitation. Nearly 4,000 years later, we’re still debating the same questions about consumer credit—particularly when it comes to lending to underserved populations. Both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have recently proposed capping credit card interest rates at 10%: a…
Originally published in Forbes. Author’s archive copy. In a bustling workshop in Bogotá, Colombia, James Downer is busy assembling e-bikes. He is reimagining how to bring financial services to Latin America’s informal economy. His startup Guajira Bikes manufactures e-bikes with a unique feature: they can be remotely disabled if payments are missed. These vehicles are sold to Venezuelan…
Originally published in Forbes Digital Assets. Author’s archive copy. Every month, Maria would board a ferry in Buenos Aires for a one-and-a-half-hour journey to Colonia, Uruguay. The trip wasn’t for leisure. It was the only way she could receive payment for her work as a freelance contractor for European companies. Under Argentina’s strict capital controls, this arduous monthly…
I put this together using original Chinese source material and organised it using Claude. I’ve found it useful while learning to write in Chinese, I’ll share here in case its useful to someone else. 1. Nature and Environment Celestial and Weather Elements Radical Name Meaning Description Example Characters English Meaning 日 日字旁 多与太阳或时间有关 晓 映 时 早 晚 昨 明 晴 Sun, day 雨 雨字头 多与天气气象有关 雪 雷 零 雾…
Originally published in Forbes. Author’s archive copy. Brookerchooser, an online broker comparison site, hosted a Fintech panel discussion in London last month where it became clear that the retail trading industry stands at a crossroads in Europe. In a discussion that included representatives from retail brokers such as XTB and Saxo, it was argued that as regulatory pressures mount and user…
Poland has emerged as one of the most remarkable growth stories of the past century. Among the world’s developing nations, two countries have particularly distinguished themselves through their exceptional economic growth: Poland and China. What makes Poland’s case especially intriguing is that, historically, it was never particularly wealthy. Consider that Poland recently surpassed…
Upon turning 31, I felt naturally compelled to begin reading Churchill’s biography. While Churchill is remembered for many things—his heroic leadership during World War II, his ever-present cigars—he’s also remembered as a prolific writer. During his lifetime, Churchill produced an enormous volume of works: books, histories, and autobiographies. These not only supported him financially…
Originally published in Forbes. Author’s archive copy. In recent years, a growing body of research has emerged from central banks and financial institutions, focusing on Bitcoin and its potential impact on monetary policy. These studies, issued by organizations such as the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), highlight a key…
There is an entirely underrated opportunity with airships that challenges our conventional understanding of both lighter-than-air flight and modern warfare. If you’ve followed my thoughts before, you know I occasionally get quite excited about this topic – and I should qualify upfront that I’m no aerospace engineer, so take what follows with an appropriate grain of salt. But the…
Originally published in Forbes Digital Assets. Author’s archive copy. Two years after FTX’s implosion, financial regulators are still closely scrutinizing the cryptocurrency industry. In the United States, several targeted enforcement actions have been levied against crypto banks and companies, signaling an increased focus on compliance and risk management in the sector. Following the…
Originally published in Forbes. Author’s archive copy. People pass by a cryptocurrency exchange branch near the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul on October 20, … [+] 2021, a day after Bitcoin took another step closer to mainstream investing with the launch of a new security on Wall Street tied to futures of the cryptocurrency. (Photo by Ozan KOSE / AFP) (Photo by OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty…
Originally published in Forbes. Author’s archive copy. Fintech companies around the world are establishing new advertising ventures this year. Paypal launched PayPal Everywhere earlier in September, a product where users can collect rewards and use PayPal both in stores and online. Rewards and cashback are enticing to consumers, but the ability to individually target potential customers with…
Last year I wrote about the problems peer-to-peer trading networks were facing. This quarter BISQ, a decentralised peer-to-peer network, has shattered all previous records. This quarter was its highest dollar volume quarter, lead high BTC/XMR volume. But fiat volumes are at all time highs too, with tremendous growth in the BRL and EUR pairs. In terms of fiat payment methods, the rise of PIX in…
I really enjoyed this Mobile Dev Memo podcast where Eric & Rishabh discuss the upcoming third party cookie depreciation and its consequences. Winners of this new world will be the “walled compounds” of Facebook, Amazon and other major players. In other words, platforms that have a lot of first party data. Losers will be small publishers that lack it. The traffic of these small publishers will…
Do you really know where your salary comes from? The word “salary” comes from the Latin word “salarium,” which originally referred to a soldier’s allowance for the purchase of salt. Salt was a valuable commodity up until modern times, often used as a preservative and for seasoning. Sometimes even as a currency in trade. The Latin word “salarium” is derived…
Have you heard of the Dutch Tulip craze? If so, you’ve likely fallen victim to centuries old propaganda. The Dutch tulip bubble of the 17th century never actually happened, at least not the way it is understood in popular culture. The popular understanding of the tulip craze goes as follows: Between 1634 and 1637 Dutch people were engaged in a speculative fever, whereby a wide cross-section…
If the economy is struggling, why are stocks at all time highs? Advertising! (And AI but lets ignore that for now). During Covid years, consumers suddenly became cash rich. They got generous government transfers and couldn’t spend money on going out. They paid down their debts and bought goods & services online. Once they realised consumers had money to spend and were willing to spend it,…
The Code of Hammurabi (c. 1700 B.C.E.) is one of the earliest known legal texts. It contains the first known formulation of lex talonis, the principle of exact retaliation. Today people are most familiar with its Biblical version: an eye for an eye. The Code of Hammurabi is also the first known attempt of a regulator to cap lending interest rates: If a merchant lends grain at interest, for one gur…
Originally published on X Crypto newbies seem to forget that the original way to buy bitcoin was through peer-to-peer trading on sites like LocalBitcoins. At a time when the fall of FTX and the rise of blockchain surveillance companies like @chainalysis highlighted the risks of centralised exchanges, P2P markets have failed to capitalise on the opportunity. In fact, the P2P market has suffered a…
A group of blind men heard that a strange phenomenon, called Bitcoin, had been brought to the town, but none of them were aware of its shape and form. Out of curiosity, they said: “We must inspect and know it by touch, of which we are capable”. So, they sought it out, and when they found it they groped about it. The first person, whose hand landed on the crypto exchanges, said,…
In Part I of this essay I discussed The Crypto Movement and Casino. In Part II I discuss the Product and Tech. The Product Cuban informal cash remittance operator accepts payments in PayPay, Zelle and Bitcoin. They are unlikely to be writing about either Crypto or PayPal on Twitter. Crypto as a Product refers to instances when people use crypto because it is the best way or only way to do…
In my previous post I discussed how credit score inflation contributed to the flurry of US mortgage originations in 2020-2021. As you can see from the chart below, the scale of the mortgage boom was truly unprecedented: Another part of the story is the quantity of older people taking out mortgages, which was vastly higher than in any previous period. The rise of the 70+ cohort is particularly…
What if credit scores have misled banks into the next lending crisis? The Global Financial Crisis of 2007 is often blamed on irresponsible lending. Lenders offered large amounts of credit to “subprime” customers. Subprime being a fancy term for people with poor credit scores, who are less likely to pay the loans back. According to Wikipedia: The 2007–2008 financial crisis, or Global…
What do you do when you discover your most profitable customers are using your product wrong? This is a discussion on pricing, the morals of marketing and the costs of compliance. A thought experiment You decide to leave your corporate 9-5 job and start a simple business in short term storage. The value proposition is fairly clear: you will rent out storage space to people who need a place to…
The conditions which lead to the rise (and fall) of company states discussed in Part I may seem distant to us in the 21st century. Nation states are as powerful as ever, and social & technological conditions seem very different to the age of exploration in which these entities thrived. For example, in the 1700s it took orders from European rulers months to arrive in the far East. Companies had…
In January 2021, powerful tech companies Facebook, Twitter and Google moved to censor President Donald Trump. Whether or not DJT deserved this ban is irrelevant for the purposes of this essay. It is the sheer power of for-profit entities that is of interest. Tech companies were free to gag the sitting a head of state. The head of state of the most powerful country in the world. A man who, for all…
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Satantango A seven hour long Hungarian film marathon by Béla Tarr. This film is shown surprisingly often in London, usually with two intermissions. The Queen of Spades A quaint oldie film, fairly well done. The Room Watching this was a lot of fun. Big cult following at the cinema, the audience was shouting out every line. You get spoons when stepping in as well. Jackie Brown A Tartantino classic.…
I discuss the realities of the crypto markets with two of the most informed crypto skeptics.
Originally published in CoinDesk Until the early 20th century, highly respected doctors would routinely engage in bloodletting to cure ailments ranging from acne to tuberculosis. While we have left bloodletting behind, we are still engaging in putatively helpful, but veritably destructive practices. Modern know-your-customer/anti-money laundering (KYC/AML) regulations are equivalent to financial…
Originally published in CoinDesk Among crypto’s hottest trends is GameFi, which brings Web 3’s advantages to gaming. Web 3’s meaning varies by individual but reflects rising demand among people who are spending more time and money in meta worlds to own their virtual assets, free from the interference of platform developers. But are strong in-game property rights compatible with…
Originally published in CoinDesk Magazine Are crypto investors financially savvy investors who are capable of understanding the nuances of blockchain, Web 3 and decentralized finance? Or are they mostly vulnerable, uneducated speculators who are being taken advantage of? The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the U.K.’s financial regulator, believes they are the latter, while the…
Originally published in Wired Magazine IN 2021, BITCOIN went mainstream. Wall Street set its eyes on the world of crypto, with hotshot investors like hedge funder Paul Tudor Jones leading the pack; The Economist went from calling the cryptocurrency “useless” in 2018 to arguing that it belongs in most portfolios; tech CEOs Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk gamely crossed swords about…
Originally published in Deribit Insights. Co-authored with Dr. Abdulla Al-Kamil. What are perpetual futures? Perpetual swaps (also known as perpetual futures or perps) are the most widely used derivative product in crypto. Perps are futures contracts with no expiration or settlement. Instead of expiring on a given day, a funding rate mechanism is used to tie the price to an index of the price of…
On Over-Compliance Full Version