What’s Happening
Latest Price Action
In the past few hours, Donald Trump has announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran. While most U.S. equity markets were closed, Bitcoin trades 24/7, meaning it was one of the first major assets to react. Price has already started to move to the upside, jumping sharply in the past couple of hours as markets price in a potential easing of geopolitical risk.
Figure 1: Past 24 hours price action, showing Bitcoin’s sharp upside move following the ceasefire announcement.
That move has pushed Bitcoin’s weekly performance back into positive territory, with BTC now up +3.8% over the past seven days.
Figure 2: Past week price action, showing Bitcoin’s recovery from recent lows.
Despite this bounce, Bitcoin still has work to do to turn June positive.
Figure 3: Monthly returns heatmap.
For the month of June, Bitcoin remains down -12.52% so far. Bulls will be hoping that the 2nd half of 2026 will create more green months showing Bitcoin gains.
Bitcoin Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin has successfully managed to hold the 200 week moving average in the short term. This is one of the most important bear market support levels in Bitcoin’s history. Price has only reached this region during periods of deep market stress, and historically, accumulating around this zone has proven to be a sound long-term strategy as BTC has gone on to trend significantly higher in future months.
Figure 4: Bitcoin key support and resistance levels, showing BTC holding the 200WMA, with Realized Price below and the 200DMA above.
The exact current levels we are watching are:
BTC current price: $65,537
200DMA: $77,528
200WMA: $62,120
Realized Price: $53,400
To the downside, the next major support level remains Realized Price, currently around $53,400. This represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin and has historically been associated with periods of deep value.
To the upside, the key level is now the 200 day moving average at $77,528. For confidence to return to the market, Bitcoin needs to reclaim this level after last month’s strong rejection.
Patience is still needed. However, for long-term investors, accumulating in this broad valuation zone has historically been rewarded. The Bitcoin Investor Tool also shows BTC trading below the 2 year moving average (green line), a region that has generated outsized returns in previous cycles.
Figure 5: Bitcoin below the 2 year moving average, highlighting a historically attractive long-term accumulation zone.
BTC is currently well below that 2-year moving average line indicating that Bitcoin price is currently in deep-value territory.
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The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.
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