Predictions of AFL, A-League, BBL and NBL matches, using Elo ratings and score prediction models.
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AFLMelbourne on the riseMelbourne has a change of +53 rating points in the last 14 days. Granted their opposition hasn't been outstanding, playing the bottom two teams before their most recent match, but that is a big gain.Will Adelaide win a game?Adelaide has a change of -29 (worst in the league) in the last fortnight, and is down -122 from the end of last season (also worst in the league)
AFL Some very average games this weekend in terms of skills, but some very close games also. There is no doubt that the 6-6-6 rule has had an impact on gameplay, perhaps bigger than anyone anticipated. Rating changes this week were quite small in comparison to the previous three rounds, which is an indication that team ratings across the league are a better representation of team strength. There
AFL A better week this week, 5 correct. The expectation is that the model will correct itself, coming back to the average accuracy of around 68%. There has been a big shift in the ratings of a few teams. Let's start with the positive stories first! Brisbane leads the way with a net gain of +43, followed by Geelong (+33) and Fremantle (+29). Brisbane was predicted to miss the 8 at the start of
AFL A very poor start to the season for the Elo model this year, which probably indicates there are some big shifts in the top and bottom teams. Coming off a season where the model was 72% accurate (and average of 70% accurate over the last seven years), initially it is hard to understand why it is performing so poorly this season. However, looking at the games in the first two rounds where the
An entertaining round Elo predicted only 3 games correctly this round, one of the worst performances in recent times. This is probably a good indication that there will be a few teams on the rise this year and a few teams dropping away. Both Brisbane (+23) and Fremantle (+29) had significant gains, while Adelaide (-14) and North Melbourne (-29) had big losses. Richmond (+3) is now the only team
A-League This week saw Melbourne Victory drop out of the predicted Grand Final match up, which is now between Perth Glory and Sydney FC. That being said, Perth and Sydney had rating changes of +12 and +11 respectively while Melbourne Victory had a change of +3 so there is still a bit to play out there. It does really depends which team faces which team in the finals. If Perth does finish on top
A-League While the top 6 might be fairly set, there is still a bit to play out this season. The team to watch is Sydney FC. They look to be doing well, but the ratings tell a different story. They have a rating change of -58 this season, and their predicted chance of winning the Grand Final is dropping with every round. Just a few rounds ago they were over 50% chance to win it, but that has now
A-League A couple of interesting things this week: Melbourne City has lost 15 rating points over the last seven days. While this doesn't affect their finals chances, every other team predicted to finish in the top 6 has gained over the last seven days with the exeption of Perth (-1). The Mariners are finally having some success, and have a net rating change of +18 in the last seven days. This
A-League Nothing unexpected this week, and the model correctly tipped 5/5 games. All rating changes were between 6 and 7 rating points, so not much movement on the end of season predictions. The top 6 looks to be fairly set now, and three teams have a >99% chance to finish top 6. Interestingly the current finals predictions see Melbourne Victory finishing third but then beating second placed
A-League There haven't been many surprising results over the Christmas/New Year period. The thing that is really of note is that Sydney FC are 48 points clear of the team ranked second by Elo ratings - Melbourne Victory. Four teams now have a greater than 95% chance to finish in the top 6, and Wellington is looking strong for a 6th place finish. Of course, given Sydney's huge ratings difference