ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CLARK. THIS MACHINE KILLS BAD ELECTORAL SYSTEMS. IF USING THIS SITE ON MOBILE YOU CAN SCROLL DOWN AND CLICK "VIEW WEB VERSION" TO SEE THE SIDEBAR FULL OF GOODIES.
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This week there was an article regarding a report released by a lobby group called 4 Year Terms Australia, which supports "fixed" four year terms for federal parliament. The SMH report contained this very brief comment regarding polling: "Polling commissioned from JWS Research found just one in five Australians supported the current system of three-year terms and the prime minister choosing the…
Today is Victoria's first day since the mid-2000s without Group Ticket Voting in state elections. Legislation to abolish the system received Royal Assent yesterday. It could still in theory be challenged in court but I doubt that would go too well for the challenger after the failed Bob Day federal challenge. There's a saying that success has many fathers while failure is an orphan. Meaning that…
GTV repeal has passed Assembly unanimously and Legislative Council with a handful of votes against. ----------------------- There is more encouraging news on the Group Ticket Voting front today with the Allan Carroll Government finally amid the chaos introducing a Bill to scrap group ticket voting in the Victorian Legislative Council, called the Electoral Amendment (Miscellaneous Matters) Bill…
It's another success for voters in the Next Leader To Go Not-A-Poll as the outright majority favourite was indeed the next leader to depart, improving the record of Not-A-Poll to 8/15 including six of the last seven. When I opened voting on 13 February there was a spirited initial battle between Jacinta Allan and Angus Taylor with the lead swapping a few times over several hours. In following days…
In 1984 there was a proposal to rename the electorate that is now called Lyons (and was then called Wilmot) "Truganini". For a little while this was being reported and discussed in papers, there was widespread opposition and the change was withdrawn. Wilmot became Lyons instead. I was twelve years old at the time and I remember this in broad outline. But I wonder if the Augmented Electoral…
Victoria Aggregate Labor 26.0 Coalition 27.3 Green 12.8 One Nation 23.7 others 10.3 (polls are probably underestimating "others" vote) 2PP estimate 52.0 to Coalition vs ALP, shadow-2PP ALP 50.1 vs One Nation Currently Coalition would be likely to govern in minority with One Nation support, with One Nation seat tally around the mid-teens One Nation and Labor seat numbers are highly dependent on…
The last week has brought the encouraging news via both The Age and The Herald-Sun that Victorian Labor is preparing legislation to scrap Group Ticket Voting at the last possible chance before this year's election. According to the reports, the legislation will be brought in in the sitting week starting July 28, and would presumably pass both houses quickly in order to meet the VEC's August…
Today could be a momentous day in the history of Tasmanian electoral boundaries! Or it could be a nothing-ever-happens. Around mid-morning today there will be a boundary announcement. If the announcement is either the same as the draft boundaries or only slightly different then that's it and the new boundaries will be official for federal elections after 8 October. It usually takes several months…
DemosAU Liberal 28 Labor 21 One Nation 21 Greens 14 IND 12 SF+F 2 Others 2 Seat estimate if these vote shares were recorded in election "held now" Lib 10 ALP 9 ON 8 Grn 4 IND 4 After a previous state poll which did not explicitly include One Nation, DemosAU have now included them in their Tasmanian state polling for the first time. The party, which has been advertised for state registration,…
I had a piece in drafts almost ready to release for weeks about this, but perhaps just as well I didn't since further developments have rendered the draft somewhat out of date. The last few weeks have seen major news in the leadup to the expected 2028 half-Senate election with the Tasmanian Liberal ticket to lose both its incumbents. Incumbent since 2019 Wendy Askew was to retire at the end of the…
