A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Lala did become a hurricane. She did not make "landfall" tho she definitely "hit Hawaii' in multiple ways. And, I'll add Hawaii hit her hard. Her signature was definitely disrupted or rather rearranged as she came up against an island that is a mountain peak that is over 13,000 feet high and lava formed landscape where water races down the river beds fast the way water races downhill fast as it…
I'm going to pretend this is 2004 or 2014 and just write a bit. This is the wave train that many tried to convince us would never happen. It's a healthy wave train, considering there's still SAL and there's shear there and more than shear there and sher that the waves are heading into the Canary Current has been a bit wonky....and yet they are sailing West. Lead wave aka 92L is way healthier than…
Again using my Mike does the Tropics Art Work. Oh look Louie the dog.......gets into the show. Invests 92L & 94L on the map. 93L is now TD Cristobal. Subtropics hot .... ...Caribbean is not. Summertime and the living is NOT easy. Whoever made up that song lived somewhere like Minnesota or maybe Canada and they didn't have to dig out from mile high snow! Trust me it ain't easy Down South in an El…
Ha!l Thought it might get that C name! Will update with info throughout the day. So let's focus on 92L for now, til then visible imagery shows circulation Weak, but there. In truth I thought it was a TS last night ....looping before I fell asleep. Will discuss PTC One-C way below. Staying with 92L that could become Dolly. Starting with Mike today and typing while he's talking, as hearing Mike's…
92L: 80% in days-60% in 2 days! It's now the "old wave" 92L New Wave off Africa 20% in 7 days! Our Mid Atlantic cruiser is now orange and it's been upgraded to 40% chances (do it FAST it has a small window) Are we busy enough? ???? Well with things to watch? C name still waiting to be used. Best signature so far today! 92L Are you going to be Cristobal or??? such tropical drama. This has always…
Waves Tropical Waves. That was IS looking healthy! Models show development... ...more so 2nd wave with 60% I'd think if we hit 70% NHC might make an Invest! As always El Nino nor No El Nino There's shear at the entrance to the Carib More yes, still same old story Can it pull to the North ...wNw enough To pull up over the Islands Land around PR or to the NE and then what? Keeping this short today.…
Love Zoom Earth.... ...shows the satellite imagery and areas of interest. I still do not understand why NHC won't do this.. ...but am sure they have their reasons. You can see the SAL. You can see the convection. (always watch the water vapor with waves....) Does a wave develop into a storm... ..that gets precariously close to OBX Similar to the clouds out there today? Somewhere between Bermuda…
Wide view of the basin. There's lots of convection off the SE Coast. That's where models made a storm originally. Good news........they got the location right. They got the convection right. Just no organized storm. And, off the coast of Africa ... ..we have a new contestant. I will say models are giving support... ... but will see how long that lasts. So far NHC hasn't blinked much. Close in it…
Good call. Keep the 1 Major Cane possible. Next name up Christobal. Possibilities down the tropical road. Low probabilities currently but stay tuned. Great App always! There's the candidates over Africa! We will see tomorrow what the models show... ....getting closer to something vs nothing. I spent a good part of the day yesterday cleaning and organizing in the closet. Staying busy rather than…
So the models backed away on development, and yet the moisture is still locked in place. But models show this blobby mess, concentrated Blobby rain mass hits the same spot the models hit the other day. Currently I'm just watching the pattern, peeking at models but not expecting much til I see the pattern begin to pull together. Keep in mind the darker the berry the less the juice. Well on this…
Gonna start here this afternoon. you know the drill... NHC Nothing for 7 days you know the graphic by heart ... When you make a major life move to a new area the one thing weather people do is look for the local experts. The ones who know that the funnel cloud seemed to have touched down around Ravens Rock State Park and Chick mentions that the elevation there is much higher and that may have made…
So you remember how we always talk about the HIGH being a huge factor in development or lack of tropical development and a steering factor if and when a system develops? So keep that in mind with this discussion today. The GFS has been fairly persistent in something forming off the East Coast either down to the N of the Islands or closer in East of Florida on the far left edge of the Huge HIGH in…
Let's call this ghostly apparitions of tropical dreams. This is what people are looking at on satellite imagery as vaguely, possible areas that could develop if the dice shake out just right. Models use them as writing prompts and create maps with possible areas of low pressure forming from a variety of appetizers that are most likely nothing more than teasers more than a treat before the full…
Nothing expected short term ... ...many would say long term. I take it day by day these days in the tropics. Of note 1. old frontal system and storms that blew through Carolinas spinning up tornado warned storms and strong gusty winds with torrential rain yesterday. 2. Odd possible fluff and stuff to the East of the huge High of darkness in the Atlantic. 3. Li'l tropical wave flirting with Central…
This really says it all! Pacific busy in El Nino years... ...the Atlantic is not. Look at that perfection! Genevieve a true beauty off the 2026 EPAC Hurricane Season. This loop tells the whole story! EPAC has Major Canes.... ...the Atlantic has nothing. You can follow the influence of El Nino by looking at the bottom left of the loop above. Moisture flows up into Genevieve...then up into Mexico…
Bertha actually had impacts on many beaches…. So first off on the road and meant to post but didn’t. So just posting now to say Arthur made landfall and Bertha made landfall! Both did Texas. True both were early July storms. The 2 for 2 so far…Gulf is the friendliest place for tropical development during El Niño. And as I’ve said numerous times close in development often means landfall! Mother…
Where is that you may be wondering.... That part of Loisiana that sticks out into the Gulf It's 5 miles from New Orleans. This image did me in. Panama City, FL It's been a long day... ....long 48 hours. I needed this laugh. It WAS gusty... Nuff Said. Bertha is extremely resilient... Views of satellite imagery From www.spaghettimodels.com off course I'll be honest again I gotta go. Things to do.…
Cone above. Facts below. Barometric pressure is 995 MB 29.39 inches. This has really wound up and deepened. Excellent image below from www.flhurricane.com Waited til the 2 PM before posting. Mind you when I say "deepened" I kept very low expectations.... ...so it's exceeded my low expectations. However............. I felt IF it survived.... ...it would find a way to thrive Been a long day for me…
Main point is the pressure is dropping. generally that's a sign it's doing well.. more to come Monday *** From Zoom Earth Will add in data after 11 PM comes out. Recon found proof to upgrade. from Earthnull alone I knew it'd be upgraded before 11 PM. Meanwhile in Raleigh it's been a night. Have had a crazy storm in Raleigh tonight. Loud, heavy thunder and pounding rain... for over 25 minutes...…
Recent Cone. Similar to last. Nudged a wee bit to the South. It's all a guessing game. Generally she'll pull West. Currently, as of now..... ..everyone in this close up should pay attn! Old saying. 6 of 1 ...half a dozen of another. My husband is cooking dinner as I do not cook Sunday Night :) and I'm watching women's gynastics on mute... so much spinning. I was looking for local weather for fun…
Just keeping it short here. Invest 91L formed as I believed it would, but beyond that there are many questions. Currently Recon is scheduled to go in tomorrow and we should have more answers after we get direct data. This is a huge bubble of trouble, potential trouble and energy that likes to spin. That said, there's lots of dry air and shear everywhere and yet close in development has happened in…
This is the 2 day forecast. Small li'l chance. But in the 7 day.... ...we are at 30% The wave by Africa is down to 10% would not totally count it out yet. Let's go close in..... Kind of impressive flare up... ....for the last several hours. Clearly partially over FL being fed clearly by moisture. Long circlular feature feeding into it. If Mimic was only working.... ...would be easier to see…
Basic Tropical Info. Yellow cirles still there. 20% Close in to Florida Small chance of development. Either way a rainmaker at some point. Keep watching. Distant African Wave lower chances. Currently can develop just a bit... ...but gets "less conducive" down the road. Speaking of the tropical road... ...we have a road block. They are working on the GOES-19 They are asking us to be patient. Most…
10% Our moist, large African Wave mentioned below. As for the 20% area by Florida. Not to see yet but models. Area down by the Yucatan... ...being overly stimulated by a nearby ULL Heavy rains over Texas. Dangerous rains over Texas. Please keep reading if you did not. Will talk on models tomorrow **** 10 AM And, just like that! NHC wisely put up a yellow area. This isn't it about a tropical wave…
A whole lot of contenders out there. A long stretched out wave complex in the Gulf. 3 little waves leaving Africa singing "look at me!!!" give us some love... Put it into the colorful IR Illuminates what the Water Vapor implies Oh LOOK! High latitude African wave too!! Storms up in Maine going down to the beach.... ....about to jump into the ocean Maybe swim around Cape Cod ?? Let's check out…