When each proud fighter brags
Remembering Max Chiswick, may his memory be a blessing.
Icosian Reflections
Ross Rheingans-Yoo writes on things of interest.
Dormant Last read · last published · next check
Read 5 days ago and current, but nothing has been published for 20 months.
Latest posts
Donations 2022-2024
Where I'm donating in 2024, where I donated in 2022/2023, why, and how my approach changed from previous years.
Drug development costs can range over two orders of magnitude
A clinical trial is a statistical problem multiplied by a logistical problem; some drugs are dramatically easier to study than others.
Poker is a bad game for teaching epistemics. Figgie is a better one.
Six things that make poker suboptimal for teaching about decision making under uncertainty, especially relative to Jane Street's card game Figgie.
Asimov on building robots without the First Law
“Why can’t a robot be built without the First Law? What’s so sacred about it?” Dr. Gerrigel looked startled, then tittered, “Oh, Mr. Baley.”...
“Liquidity” vs “solvency” in bank runs
Notes on "liquidity" crises vs "solvency" crises, with Silicon Valley Bank as a live worked example.
(Naïve) microeconomics of bundling goods
Biden, Zvi M., and Matt Y. have all recently mentioned "bundling" and its effects on consumer welfare. I'll cover the "naïve microeconomics" perspective as background for the customer-behavioral story that they're digging into.
Metaculus and medians
How big will monkeypox be? Metaculus aggregates hundreds of users' predictions, but the details of that aggregation are...tricky.
The FDA on Fluvoxamine, round 1
Understanding "While the FDA has concluded that the existing clinical data are insufficient to support the issuance of an EUA, these data suggest that further clinical investigation may be warranted."
Series I (April 2022 update)
Updating the math on Series I bonds for the April'22 vintage. Inflation continued, and Series I now looks like a 6.03%/ann return for the first 15mo.
So you want to work on biosecurity
An incomplete reading list for topics in biosecurity and pandemic preparedness. Seeking suggestions!
Onward, again
This January, I left my job at Jane Street to take a role leading a project at the FTX Foundation. I want to help build a better future, and am very excited for what's next.
[Meta] To Icosian Reflections
After nearly nine years as *My Faults My Own*, this blog is now *Icosian Reflections*.
Donations 2021
Where I'm donating in 2021, why, and how my approach changed from previous years.
What on Earth is a Series I savings bond?
Series I bonds are US government bonds that pay interest based on the inflation rate. Inflation has been high, and the interest rates on these very safe bonds is unusually high.