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Five Rounds In, One Player Has Seized Control Before the tournament, I simulated the Candidates 100,000 times . Nakamura was the clear favorite at 32%. Caruana was close behind at 26%. Sindarov? A 4.2% long shot, grouped with Esipenko and Bluebaum in the “would need a miracle” tier. Five rounds later, the tournament has been flipped on its head. Javokhir Sindarov has 4.5/5 – four wins and a draw…
Update: The tournament is over. Javokhir Sindarov won with an extraordinary 9.5/14 performance. Read the Round 5 update for how his historic run unfolded. The Race to Challenge Gukesh Eight players descend on Cyprus for the most prestigious qualifying event in chess: the FIDE Candidates Tournament. The prize? The right to challenge Gukesh Dommaraju, the youngest undisputed World Chess Champion in…
2788 or 2675 Ding? After defeating Ian Nepomniachtchi, Ding Liren held a rating of 2788. Since that time Ding Liren has scored only 20 points in 49 games, which gives a performance rating of a mere 2675 for the time period. Surely, he is capable of higher level chess than this. It remains to be seen which version of Ding Liren has arrived in Singapore. He shared in the Opening Ceremony that he…
How many points do I need to win? Heading into the back half of the tournament, every player needs to ask themselves this question. Pawnalyze is here to help! So far I’ve run over 500,000 simulations with results through Round 7, and we can inspect the simulations to figure out how likely each player is to win if they achieve a certain score. Ok… now shut up and show us the data! In order of most…
Fighting chess awaits, Candidates prepare for battle For the first time ever the Candidates Tournament and Women’s Candidates Tournament will be held at the same time and place. Toronto welcomes 16 chess stars vying for the right to challenge Ding Liren and Ju Wenjun for their respective World Chess Champion titles. I’ve simulated each tournament 1,000,000 times using players’ April 2024 Elo…
What makes a position complex? If you asked a Grandmaster what would they say? And is the position complex for humans, computers, or both? Do you know if a position is complex when you look at it? Today, I am introducing an open-source tool that predicts the complexity of a chess position for a human . The tool is called Elocator , and I hope you find it interesting . So how does it work? I chose…