What Moscow doesn't know about its own oil refineries
Western analysts keep asking whether Ukraine's campaign against Russian refineries is actually working. I ran Russia's largest oil company and my answer is yes.
How to Slay a Dragon
Russia, geopolitics, and the fight for what comes after Putin.
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They panicked.
The Kremlin is not afraid of losing an election, because the procedure we're about to witness is not an election. They're afraid of losing control of the country.
Putin Thinks Time Is on His Side. It Isn’t.
Sanctions alone will not end the war in Ukraine. But Russia is consuming its reserves and human capital just as Europe’s military industry begins to accelerate.
Putin’s "Special Electoral Operation"
What is happening before September’s “elections” in Russia and what is likely to come after
Why Hasn't the Russian Economy Collapsed? Inside Putin's War Machine
Why analysts waiting for an economic collapse are getting it wrong
Why the Fuel Crisis Is Spreading Across Russia
Drone strikes cut the output by a quarter — what turned that into a national crisis is how Russia is governed
Machine Guns on a Gazprom Gas Tanker
For the first time, Moscow has equipped a commercial gas carrier with heavy weaponry and FSB personnel
What is Actually Happening in Crimea
Russian authorities prioritize protecting Putin's private residences over defending the heavily targeted peninsula
Putin Brought Back the KGB. It May Finish Him
The FSB has gone from counter-intelligence service to the only steering hand of the regime.
German Engines Powering Putin’s Fleet
Four years into Western sanctions, billions of rubles' worth of European and American equipment is still reaching Russia's shipyards
A Leaked Kremlin Report Reveals How They Fabricated Zelensky Dubai Apartment Story
A leaked internal briefing from the Kremlin-linked Social Design Agency takes credit for fabricating and seeding the viral 2025 claim that Zelensky bought his mother a luxury apartment in Dubai.
Who Put Pig Heads Outside Paris Mosques? A Leaked Kremlin Document Claims Credit, Translated
A leaked after-action report shows the Social Design Agency, a Kremlin-contracted firm, claiming credit for the September 2025 desecration of ten mosques and Muslim centers around Paris.
"Projects 2026": A Leaked Blueprint for Moscow's Information War on Europe and Armenia, Translated
A leaked internal planning file from the firm the Kremlin contracts to inflame divisions across Europe and Armenia.
What Ends Putin?
The NEST Centre pinpoints the real vulnerabilities of the Putin regime, and the picture that emerges flatters no one, least of all those of us who oppose him from outside.
Filling the Vacuum Post-USAID: Moscow's Plan for Armenia, Leaked
Inside the Kremlin's failed operation to stop West-oriented Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan before the upcoming general elections in June.
The Russia the Kremlin Doesn't Want You to See
What Russia's democratic opposition still has to build before the day after Putin.
Putin Renewed His Treaty With Xi. The Plane They Were Building Together Is Now China's Alone
The New Eurasian Strategies Centre's February report is worth reading alongside the ceremony in the Great Hall of the People.
Putin’s Approval Rating Was Falling. Then His Pollsters Changed Methodology
Russia’s Kremlin-aligned pollsters paused publication while Putin’s ratings were dropping. When they resumed, the numbers had recovered...and the methodology had changed
What the Russian Opposition Is Really Lacking
Russian opposition structures in exile still struggle to answer a basic strategic question: what are we actually trying to build?
The May 9 Ceasefire Is a Turning Point in the Russia-Ukraine War
After more than four years of war, both sides are confronting the same reality: the front has stalled and the continuation of the war is too costly to sustain.
Inside the Kremlin's Rehearsal for Retreat
A planning document leaked from inside Putin's administration is the clearest sign yet that some of his own people are looking for the exit