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One day I watched a video where David Pruess goes through an analysis of a chess position (David is an amazing chess teacher and commentator), and he goes through like a dozen moves before pointing out one random little detail that reverses the conclusion. This is kind of funny because a less talented chess player looks at the position, miscalculates everywhere, gives up and goes, "well idk, White…
There is a perception of conflict between the scientist and the bureaucrat. The scientist, in the purest form, wants to uncover impactful knowledge about the world. To create a whole new field, by discovering the simple but elegant structure of DNA. To cure a devastating illness. To build up an abstract, beautiful theory far ahead of its time, which only reveals its utility long into the future,…
Automation At an old job I was responsible for managing survey data related to a clinical trial. The data was important for later analysis, but also for the actual administration of the study: we monitored enrollment and drop out rates, adverse events, and other things the study team had to track. Most of my work required minimal analysis, even though that was my main expertise, because we had a…
I don't have to use SAS any more! To celebrate, and to help out any analysts who haven't used it before, I've gathered some reviews. 1 "Rare is the data system developer that defines only two data types, and equally rare is the technical lead that allows NaNs to behave like negative infinity. Sure to excite!" "The macro system is sort of cute I guess. It's kind of like if you hired a CS undergrad…
"If I run it, they will learn." When the Moderna COVID vaccine trial interim results were announced, showing a ~95% vaccine efficacy, I was pretty excited. They announced it in a press release first but I grabbed the FDA submission as soon as I could. Inside, on page 28 (of 54), was a graph that I will never forget: This is really impressive . This red line is pancake flat, it is the flattest red…
I read a good column by Kelsey Piper about trust. It's about COVID and the way people in the media made major mistakes, never acknowledged that, and probably never will. The conclusion is pretty depressing but a lot of it resonated with me. I was about halfway through a Master of Public Health when COVID first reached my area. Being in a school of public health at the onset of a pandemic was a…
I recently entered a Kaggle competition to brush up on some modeling skills. 1 The analysis problem is a pretty typical clinical prediction question. My final product is, well, "final product" is an extremely charitable description of it. 2 But despite this it was a fascinating and worthwhile experience, full of interesting questions to ponder, such as "what is the fundamental difference between…
I work for the government, and I've learned that government people aren't afraid to spend a little time developing a mission and vision. We have the nice Powerpoint slides to prove it. But a more exciting way to find out who you are, maybe even a more honest one, is to find out that your team is under financial stress and see what happens next. Well, we did. Funding has slowed and a number of…