Simplest election model gives Kamala 55%

October 07, 2024

There are many election models making the round, from the good old 538 (now under new management) to the economist and Nate Silver. The all agree it is basically a toss-up with Kamala having a slight advantage.

There are 7 swing states that most likely will decide the election. What if we treat each state as an actual coin toss? That gives you 2⁷ = 128 possible outcomes. Turns out Harris wins in 71 of those scenarios, and Trump 56, or in percentages, 55% vs 44%, almost perfectly in line with the very advanced models. And yes there is one scenario where it is a draw (for a .7% likelihood).

See the spreadsheet here