The 2072 Daily Keg - Wildcard Preview

Santo Domingo (86-76, Away: 33-48, R: 786/RA: 728) at Montreal (88-74, Home: 44-37, R: 755/RA: 700)

Santo Domingo won the season series 7-5 and both clubs are 6-4 over their last ten, but Montreal’s pitching staff is the best in this matchup. Andy Blake (16-9, 3.32, 162 K) is the most dominant arm on either roster, and Rich Mount (14-12, 3.67) gives Montreal a second reliable starter. Santo Domingo counters with Jim Miller (16-7, 3.83) and a lineup getting hot at the right time: Micah Lumsden (.357, 3 HR over his last 11 games, 90 RBI on the year) and Troy Yordan (.326, 5 HR in that stretch, 34 HR/81 RBI on the year) are both peaking, and Lucas Slater has gone deep in three straight. Montreal’s middle of the order (H. Holly 36 HR, C. Bogue 92 RBI) hasn’t shown up in the hot/cold data one way or the other.

Prediction: Montreal wins in 4. The Blake led rotation and home field are enough to overcome the head to head history.

Pawtucket (81-81, Away: 34-47, R: 711/RA: 732) at Wilmington (95-67, Home: 58-23, R: 800/RA: 665)

Pawtucket actually took the season series 6-5, and both teams are 6-4 over their last ten, but the gap in overall quality here is the widest in the bracket. Wilmington’s plus-135 run differential dwarfs Pawtucket’s minus-21, and the Sorcery roll out three double-digit-win starters (Eamon Hakki 17-10/3.30, Cristian Wilfert 15-10/3.87, Jordon Burell 15-9/4.45) against a Pawtucket staff that’s more spread out (Ty Hurt 11-9, Brad Zook 11-11, no one else above single digits in wins). Jerian Barnes has driven in a run in six straight games for Wilmington, while Pawtucket’s lineup has ice-cold spots in Ryley Luciano (.114) and Louis Jenkins (.103) right when they need production most.

Prediction: Wilmington wins in 3. This is the most lopsided series on paper.

Seattle (82-80, Away: 36-45, R: 814/RA: 785) at Baltimore (91-71, Home: 54-27, R: 841/RA: 718)

Seattle won the season series 7-4, giving the Sasquatch real recent success against this club, but Baltimore is the far better all-around team, with a plus-123 run differential against Seattle’s plus-29. Billy Heil is red hot for Seattle (.421, 6 HR over his last 10 games), but Seattle’s pitching is trending the wrong way at the worst time: Jasper Guzman has a 10.22 ERA over his last three starts, and reliever Timothy Rouge has been torched for a 25.07 ERA. Baltimore has the opposite trend, with Marco Nzibo dealing (0.63 ERA, 11 K over his last two starts, 15-7 on the year) and closer Anton Anthony riding a streak of 17 straight converted saves. Seth Riddle’s 39 homers give Baltimore’s lineup thump Seattle simply doesn’t match.

Prediction: Baltimore wins in 4.

Batavia (81-81, Away: 37-44, R: 765/RA: 784) at Washington (93-69, Home: 41-40, R: 887/RA: 758)

Batavia dominated the season series 9-3, and Washington’s home record (41-40) isn’t the fortress some of the other top seeds have, but Washington’s offense is the best of any team in this bracket at 887 runs scored, led by Nathan Yarnes (37 HR, 103 RBI, fresh off 100 career extra base hits) and Nathan Hume (30 HR, 90 RBI). Batavia’s own power bat, J. Stevens (39 HR, 105 RBI), gives the Muckdogs a chance to keep pace, and Max Kidd (13-9, 3.20) is a legitimate ace at the front of their rotation. The concern for Batavia is depth: Erik Hughes has an 11.81 ERA over his last three outings, and beyond Kidd and E.J. Scott (8-6, 3.64) the staff thins out quickly.

Prediction: Washington wins in 5. The season series says Batavia, but Washington’s offense and the head-to-head thinness behind Kidd tip a close one the Bats’ way.