You’ve seen the headlines. US and Israel are at war with Iran, who is at war with the entire middle east. Crude oil crossed $100 for the first time in 4 years.
But here’s what nobody’s telling you clearly: What this actually means for your SIPs, your FDs, and your monthly budget. Don’t worry, I’ll cover that today.
But before that…
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Now let’s begin..
The Nifty is down nearly 8% since 2nd March. ₹23.44 lakh crore in market value has been wiped out in ten sessions. Foreign investors have pulled over ₹50,000 crore out of Indian markets — Outlook Business called it the worst monthly outflow since January 2025.
It feels bad. And honestly? It is.
But if you stop your SIPs now, you’re locking in the fear and sitting out the recovery.
I’m sure you know — When markets fall, your SIP buys more units at lower prices. That’s literally how SIPs are designed to work. Every rupee you invest right now buys more than it did in February.
Now here’s something interesting — Data from six major geopolitical crises between 1990 and 2026 shows that Indian markets delivered an average 28% return in the three months after such shocks. The people who kept going were the ones who benefited.
That said — don’t rush in with a lump sum trying to time the bottom either. There’s no signal yet that the worst is over. Morgan Stanley has already downgraded India to Equal Weight citing oil supply risks, and the war has no ceasefire in sight.
The call: keep your SIPs running exactly as they are. Don’t stop, don’t add a big chunk. If you have idle money sitting and you’re waiting for the right moment — watch crude oil prices everyday. The day Brent Crude starts falling meaningfully, that’s your signal, to start considering lumpsums.
Before this war, the picture was clear: the RBI had cut rates by 125 basis points through 2025, and further cuts were expected in 2026. When the RBI cuts, banks don’t need to attract deposits as aggressively — so FD rates fall too. The smart move was to lock in your FD quickly before that happened.
Now the logic has reversed — and this time, waiting might just work in your favour.
Because if the crisis deepens further, inflation may rise. And a repo rate hike might become possible — which would also mean higher interest on FDs.
So you can expect FD rates to increase if the war continues. But I wouldn’t wait for it to happen. Trump keeps changing his stance everyday, and nobody know what will happen even..tomorrow.
If you have idle cash lying around and want a safe haven, go for that FD.
Retail petrol and diesel prices haven’t moved — the government has held them since April 2022. With state elections approaching in Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Assam, there’s political pressure to keep holding.
But bulk diesel — what truck operators, factories, and cold chains actually pay — has already jumped ₹22/litre. That cost is already moving through freight and logistics. Vegetables, packaged goods, anything that travels by road — price pressure is building invisibly before it shows up on your bill. Retail prices are a lagging indicator. They always catch up.
LPG cooking gas is already in shortage. The government has invoked emergency powers to redirect refinery output toward LPG production — not a reassuring signal, but a sign of how stretched things already are.
The call: no dramatic action needed, but build a small cushion in your monthly budget for food and fuel costs over the next two to three months. Not panic — just basic math.
Watch the Strait of Hormuz, not the news cycle. The day commercial tanker traffic starts normalising — even partially — Indian markets will recover, hopefully faster than they fell. That’s the real leading indicator, not whatever is trending on your news app.
Until then: keep SIPs running, hold off on long-tenure FDs, reduce duration in debt funds, and expect daily costs to inch up. That’s the whole playbook.
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See you next time!
Cheers,
Ankur
Money Simplified is a newsletter on personal finance, without the noise. This is not investment advice.
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