The 4-Year Cycle Is Dead, Long Live the 4-Year Cycle

Dear Bitcoiners,

For the past weeks, we’ve been cautiously observing the key resistance levels. While many bulls were already calling for new ATHs, we’ve remained careful and data-oriented. This week we’ll discuss what it means that Bitcoin rejected off the key resistance levels. Sentiment has been rather sour, and to be fair, it has made me more bullish.

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👉 Key Insight: This is what time capitulation feels like. Rejecting off key levels, moving through another consolidation, and waiting for the next try.

We are in this weird situation where, on the one hand, the business cycle is expanding, traditional markets are at ATHs, and Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets is high. Yet on the other hand, Bitcoin is following the typical bear market structure we’ve seen in every 4-year cycle. Bulls are in disbelief. Over the past months, all markets performed well, except Bitcoin. Absolutely brutal.

So how does this all fit together? We’ll discuss it right here.