Dear Bitcoiners,
What an absolute macro rollercoaster week it has been. We went from an escalating war to Bitcoin being used for toll payments in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been ranging exactly within the on-chain supply distribution gap we discussed in the previous newsletter. In fact, the past two newsletters remain highly relevant. If you missed them, you can find them here:
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Bitcoin being used for toll payments shows the value of a neutral, permissionless, censorship-resistant global settlement layer. Iran did not choose USD, stablecoins, or any other fiat currency due to sanction risk, nor gold due to its lack of transactability.
Another major development is the launch of the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF, which saw record inflows and ranks among the top ETF launches of all time.
With these developments, Bitcoin’s price moved back into the $70k range, and if momentum continues, it could revisit the STH cost basis at $81.5k.
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This week we start with cycle analysis and then move into on-chain insights around Bitcoin’s multiplier. The multiplier measures how much one dollar of real inflow impacts Bitcoin’s market value.
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