This Bitcoin Onchain Metric Is Flashing a Familiar Bear Market Signal

Bitcoin Market Brief here - your go-to crypto source.

What’s on the menu today:

• This Bitcoin Onchain Metric Is Flashing a Familiar Bear Market Signal

• Trump Reveals the Real Reason He Became Pro-Crypto

• Trader loses $2M in ‘same-block backrun extraction’ exploit

A crypto trader tells his friend:

“I’ve finally figured out why trading is so exhausting.”

Friend:
“Why?”

Trader:

“Because every candle…”

“feels personally directed at me.” 📉😂

Bitcoin might not be done falling just yet.

And honestly?

One of the most reliable onchain indicators is still pointing in that direction.

The metric is called Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL for short.

Sounds complicated.

But the idea is actually pretty simple.

It measures how much of Bitcoin is currently sitting in profit versus sitting at a loss.

And right now...

It’s sending a pretty interesting signal.

Here’s what’s happening 👇

1/ Previous bear markets all followed a similar pattern

Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed when this indicator dropped into negative territory.

That happened in:

• 2011

• 2015

• 2018

• 2022 after the FTX collapse

Each time, it lined up with the point where the majority of investors had already been shaken out.

2/ We’re not there yet

The indicator has fallen a lot during this correction.

But it’s still sitting above zero.

That suggests a large portion of Bitcoin holders are still, on average, in profit.

And if history repeats...

There may still be another leg lower before the market reaches maximum pain.

Now, that doesn’t automatically mean Bitcoin has to revisit previous lows.

Each cycle has looked a little different.

The lows have gradually become less severe over time.

So it’s possible this cycle bottoms without the indicator fully dipping below zero.

But either way...

It’s getting much closer to the zone that has marked major bottoms in the past.

3/ Capitulation is a process, not an event

One thing we’ve seen over and over again is that market bottoms don’t happen because of one headline.

Or one big red candle.

They usually form over weeks.

People slowly lose interest.

Selling pressure fades.

And eventually there just aren’t many sellers left.

That’s why so many onchain signals are starting to flash at the same time.

Not because they guarantee the bottom is already here...

But because they’re suggesting we’re getting closer.

The takeaway:

Nobody knows exactly where Bitcoin’s lowest price will be this cycle.

But some of the strongest historical onchain indicators are starting to enter the same territory they’ve occupied near previous bear market bottoms.

Whether the final flush comes next week or later...

It feels a lot more like the late stages of a bear market than the beginning of one.

Donald Trump just gave one of his most honest explanations yet for why he became so pro-crypto.

And honestly?

It wasn’t some deep belief in decentralization.

It was politics.

Here’s what he said 👇

1/ “I got involved in it a little bit for politics.”

Speaking at the White House this week, Trump said he became a supporter of crypto after realizing just how big the industry had become.

His reasoning was pretty straightforward.

A lot of people love crypto.

A lot of money is flowing into crypto.

And if the US doesn’t embrace it...

China might.

Those are basically the three reasons he gave for changing his position.

Which is a pretty dramatic shift considering he once called Bitcoin a scam during his first term.

2/ Crypto went from political risk... to political opportunity

Trump also said he watched the industry grow into something much bigger than he originally expected.

From his perspective, crypto wasn’t just another niche technology anymore.

It had become a major industry with real capital, real voters, and growing geopolitical importance.

That’s a big change from where things stood just a few years ago.

Back then, crypto was mostly treated as something politicians criticized.

Now it’s something they actively campaign around.

3/ The timing is hard to ignore

Trump’s comments also come after financial disclosures showed he earned more than $1.4 billion from crypto-related ventures last year.

That includes income tied to World Liberty Financial and other crypto businesses connected to his family.

When asked about those interests, Trump said he doesn’t discuss crypto with his children and insisted his support for the industry isn’t driven by personal business interests.

The takeaway:

Whether you agree with him or not...

Trump’s comments show just how much crypto’s political influence has grown.

A few years ago, supporting crypto was considered a fringe position.

Today, it’s something the President openly says helped shape his political strategy.

That’s a pretty remarkable shift for an industry that many people once dismissed as a passing trend.

US Bitcoin reserve hits snag as federal agencies debate for control: Bloomberg

Battle of the Bitcoin Reserve: Treasury-Commerce Department Infighting Delays Trump Crypto Plan

Bitcoin News: Dave Portnoy Vows to Hold Bitcoin to Zero After Buying at $100K

Trader loses $2M in ‘same-block backrun extraction’ exploit

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.