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We’re likely somewhere in the middle of this bear market.

If prior halving cycles are any guide, there could still be six to twelve months before the next phase begins. Nobody knows exactly how the timeline will unfold, but the market has already provided some clues.

So far, the estimated aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin holders around the $55,000-$60,000 range has acted as a floor. That’s an area where buyers have repeatedly shown up.

History also suggests that previous cycle highs often become future support levels, and if macro conditions continue to improve, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bitcoin establish a higher floor closer to the prior cycle peak before the next major move higher.

The path from here won’t be smooth.

It never is.

But that’s where many investors get themselves into trouble.

Bear markets create a constant temptation to tinker with everything.

People start searching for the perfect signal, the perfect portfolio allocation, or the perfect prediction that will somehow give them an edge.

More often than not, they’re simply creating activity. The challenge isn’t finding something new to do. The challenge is recognizing when you’ve already done enough. Once you have a plan, a reasonable allocation, and a secure way to hold your Bitcoin, there are long stretches of time where the most productive thing you can do is simply stick with it.

Patience is a skill.

Why Patience Matters

One of the defining features of every bear market is its ability to make people lose sight of their original thesis.

The daily price action starts to feel more important than the long-term trend. Every headline seems urgent. Every macro development feels like it should change your outlook.

Before long, investors find themselves reacting to events that have little impact on the reason they bought Bitcoin in the first place.

That’s why periods like this are less about making new decisions and more about revisiting old ones.

Why did you buy Bitcoin? What problem were you trying to solve? What attracted you to the asset when the headlines were positive and the market was moving higher?

For most people, those answers haven’t changed. Bitcoin is still scarce. The network is still secure. Adoption continues to expand. The long-term case is largely intact, even if the short-term environment feels uncertain.

This is the part of the cycle where conviction quietly compounds. Not because you’re making brilliant trades or perfectly timing the market, but because you’re refusing to let temporary noise distract you from a long-term thesis.

The investors who benefit most from the next wave of upward volatility are often the ones who spent the quiet months simply staying the course.

While everyone else searched for something new to do, they focused on protecting their holdings, maintaining their plan, and reminding themselves why they were here in the first place.

The noise between cycles has a way of making people forget what matters.

Don’t let it.

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