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Bear markets have a funny way of making every headline feel bigger than it really is.

When prices are falling, every new product launch becomes “the next big thing.”

Every earnings report, every treasury announcement, every AI breakthrough, every yield product, every macro headline suddenly feels like it should completely change the future of Bitcoin.

Usually… it doesn’t.

The longer I’ve followed Bitcoin, the more I’ve realized that every market cycle develops its own personality. The names change. The technologies evolve. The narratives get updated.

But human behavior is always consistent.

That’s one of the most predictable parts of Bitcoin.

The 2012-2016 cycle revolved around Bitcoin simply surviving.

Mt. Gox collapsed. Silk Road was shut down. The headlines declared Bitcoin dead over and over again. Yet the network kept producing blocks every ten minutes.

The 2016-2020 cycle became the era of ICOs and altcoins. Capital flooded into thousands of tokens promising to reinvent entire industries. Retail speculation exploded before much of that capital ultimately disappeared.

The 2020-2024 cycle introduced an entirely different cast of characters. COVID accelerated monetary expansion. NFTs reached absurd valuations, highlighted by Beeple’s $69 million sale. Then came the unwind: Terra/Luna erased roughly $40 billion, Celsius and BlockFi collapsed, and FTX became one of the largest failures in financial history. Bitcoin ultimately found its bottom near $16,000.

Today’s cycle has its own identity.

Bitcoin treasury companies dominate conversations. Strategy remains the center of attention. Stablecoins have gone from niche crypto infrastructure to products openly embraced by governments, policymakers, and the world’s largest financial institutions. At the same time, AI, robotics, energy, and space have become competing destinations for investment capital, often attracting the same investors who would otherwise be allocating to Bitcoin.

The themes change.
The emotions don’t.

Greed still chases whatever appears to offer the fastest returns.

Fear still convinces people that “this time is different.”

Bear markets make you want to act.

It’s important you don’t act too quickly.

Here are 10 Rules to Not Lose Bitcoin.

Read the Rules

Bear markets rarely feel like opportunities while you’re living through them.

No one rings a bell at the bottom.

No indicator identifies when selling is finished.

But some metrics are difficult to ignore.

Bitcoin is now trading near the average cost basis for all circulating bitcoin—roughly $55,000 to $60,000. Historically, spending time around or below the aggregate cost basis has represented periods where long-term investors were accumulating rather than distributing.

We’ve also traded below the average purchase price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors, estimated around $70,000. Those investors, many representing institutions and long-term allocators, are now underwater alongside everyone else.

Meanwhile, BlackRock continues expanding rather than retreating.

Its new BITA covered-call Bitcoin ETF targets roughly 70% upside participation while generating income, another signal that the world’s largest asset manager continues building out its Bitcoin product ecosystem instead of waiting on the sidelines.

At the same time, all eyes remain on Strategy.

Its roughly 850,000 BTC treasury sits underwater during this bear market, while MSTR shares continue amplifying Bitcoin’s downside volatility.

Around Strategy, an entire ecosystem of leveraged and yield-focused products has emerged. Earlier offerings from YieldMax and Defiance built around Strategy have suffered significant declines, yet the appetite for yield continues. New products, including Strategy’s own preferred securities like STRC and offerings like Strive’s SATA, are quickly attracting attention.

It’s another reminder that retail investors are often drawn toward complexity, leverage, and yield precisely when patience is likely the better trade.

History rarely repeats exactly.

But it certainly rhymes.

I’ve written recently that the hardest skill in Bitcoin isn’t technical.

It’s patience.

That hasn’t changed.

Here’s why patience matters:

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If anything, this part of the cycle rewards simplicity more than ever.

I continue to dollar-cost average.

I continue using Bitcoin the same way I always have.

I continue verifying my self-custody setup, checking backups, and making sure nothing about my security depends on remembering something during a stressful market.

And yes, while prices remain around these levels, I don’t mind increasing my DCA somewhat compared to what I’d do during a roaring bull market.

Nobody knows whether we’ve already seen the bottom. Nobody knows whether another leg down is coming. But value and certainty are two completely different things. Markets rarely offer both at the same time.

If Bitcoin’s historical cycles continue to rhyme, 2026 is likely remembered as the bear market year. The next major catalyst remains the 2028 halving, when Bitcoin’s issuance will once again be cut in half.

What happens after that will depend on demand.

If institutional adoption continues accelerating, if stablecoins further integrate traditional finance with Bitcoin infrastructure, if AI, energy, and digital assets increasingly intersect, and if retail adoption continues growing globally, the next cycle could look very different from every one before it.

Not because human nature changed.

But because Bitcoin’s place in the financial system did.

Until then, the strategy remains surprisingly… boring.