Welcome to Number 10, Mr Burnham

Andy Burnham, the energetic former mayor of Britain’s second most important city, Manchester, will know three important things when he visits Buckingham Palace today to be confirmed by King Charles as Britain’s latest revolving-door prime minister. He will know that to do better than his dull predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, he will have to be a master communicator giving the impression that he has a clear plan for government, even if he hasn’t worked one out yet. He will know that he no longer needs to flatter Donald Trump, for doing so has become toxic in British politics. But finally he will know that his main rival, the extreme right-wing anti-European Nigel Farage, will pounce on any sign that Burnham is moving Britain back towards Europe, even if polls suggest the public has become sharply more pro-EU. It is in that strange contradiction that the solution to Britain’s troubles lies, if the currently popular Burnham can grasp it.

The United Kingdom used to pride itself on how boringly stable its politics were. The far-too exciting fact that Burnham will be the seventh prime minister in a decade, compared with a mere six in the previous 40 years, suggests Britain is becoming more European in its politics. France is currently on its ninth prime minister in a decade, while Italy is on its fifth.

Britain’s instability reflects economic stagnation and a resulting social unrest that has given Nigel Farage and his Reform Party a clear lead in opinion polls. The stagnation in living standards has been worsened by Brexit, but it did not begin in 2016: it began with the 2007-08 global financial crisis, which hit the United Kingdom harder than most other European countries because of its dependence on financial services.

Now Britain finds itself trapped, rather as France does, thanks to a high debt that leaves little room for public investment to boost growth. Britain’s economic performance has been no worse than Italy’s, but unlike Italy it has not had a big injection of European funds with which to repair its infrastructure and improve the public mood. One of Starmer’s few successes has been that his government has achieved a big reduction in new immigration but neither he nor the Labour Party has gained much credit for it. A discontented public wants someone to blame for their woes, and immigrants are always a convenient target.

If the eloquent, youthful and good-looking Emmanuel Macron could not transform France during his nine years as president nor kill off the prospect of right-wing populists winning power next year, what chance does an equally eloquent (though less youthful; he is 56) Andy Burnham have in Britain? Burnham has governmental experience, having served in the Labour governments led by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in 1997-2010. His term as mayor of Manchester has been a success, coinciding with a new period of prosperity for that previously depressed northern city. But governing a country will be far harder than governing a city.

Part of the solution does need to lie in eloquence: where Starmer was dull and had no clear plan, Burnham promises to be lively, optimistic and full of interesting ideas, such as about reducing Britain’s excessive centralisation and building more public housing. But he will also need courage if those ideas are to be turned into reality, especially in dealing with the two biggest sources of instability in Britain.

The first is the electoral system. The reason why Farage and his Reform Party are a serious threat, despite a majority of voters believing Brexit was a mistake, is that the winner-takes-all single-member-constituency electoral rules make it possible to win a big parliamentary majority with little more than a third of the popular vote. Farage currently stands at just below 25%. Now that British political parties have become more fragmented rather than dominated by Labour and the Conservatives as they have been for the past century, it is time for a more proportional electoral system. Achieving that would require a referendum, which is not possible in time for the 2029 election. But by opening the debate and promising reform, Burnham could build broad support which would help him beat Farage.

The other source of instability is Britain’s poor relationship with the European Union, which remains the country’s biggest trading partner. Rejoining the EU will not be possible until electoral reform has made Britain’s politics more stable. But Burnham, who says he is a pro-European, could nevertheless show boldness by opening negotiations to rejoin the EU’s single market, which would reduce barriers against British exports, or by pledging to do so after the 2029 election.

Burnham’s timing could prove lucky: he is entering office just when Nigel Farage is in political trouble over a scandal about secret political donations and when Farage’s Reform Party is being challenged by another new anti-immigrant party which promises to split the extremist vote1. All prime ministers need some luck. But they also have to be smart and nimble enough to exploit it.