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Beyond the Peloton · Jul 28, 2026

Tour de France 2026 Debrief: Breaking Down Exactly Where/How Tadej Pogačar Won the Race

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Spencer Martin · Beyond the Peloton

Thank you for reading the daily BTP coverage of the 2026 Tour de France. This coverage was only possible thanks to all BTP readers, particularly premium subscribers. BTP will take a short hiatus but return for daily Vuelta a España coverage in August.

After taking a moment to absorb Tadej Pogačar’s fifth career Tour de France title, capped by his aggression as he attempted yet again to win the Montmartre circuit on the final stage in Paris, it’s worth stepping back to consider the implications of how thoroughly he dismantled the field over three weeks. In sum, Pogačar completed the world’s biggest race with a lead of over six minutes, collected five stage wins, wore Yellow every day from Stage 6 onward, and rode the final week as a domestique for his young teammate Isaac del Toro, only leaving Del Toro’s side to shatter the record time up Alpe d’Huez.

Unfortunately for the rest of the peloton, Pogačar continues to show no weaknesses, and with his only true rival, Jonas Vingegaard, crashing out of the race on Stage 15, there appeared to be no other contender who could mount any semblance of a challenge, with Pogačar looking openly bored without the only rider to ever defeat him at the Tour. But, even as Pax Pogačar continues on, the rise of 19-year-old Paul Seixas, who shattered what we thought was possible from a teenager in the sport’s biggest race, gave a glimmer of hope about the potential for the rise of a new challenger to the greatest rider the sport has ever seen.

Final GC Top Ten:
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) +0
2) Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) +6:26
3) Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) +9:42
4) Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM) +11:56
5) Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) +13:02
6) Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) +14:59
7) Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) +17:48
8) Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) +20:00
9) Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) +29:28
10) Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies) +33:21

Young Rider Classification Top Three
1)
Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) +0
2)
Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM) +2:14
3)
Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) +3:20

Green Jersey Classification Top Three
1)
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek): 559pts
2)
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech): 475pts
3) Biniam Girmay (NSN): 367pts

KOM Classification Top Three:
1)
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost): 156pts
2) Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG): 100pts
3)
Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal-QuickStep): 99pts

To help us digest the final result and attempt to understand what exactly happened and where mistakes/winning moves were made, I’ve isolated every stage where the top four overall contenders won/lost time relative to each other and how much time they won(+) or lost(-).

  • Stage 1 TTT
    Pogačar +0
    Evenepoel -7
    Del Toro -14
    Seixas -27

  • Stage 2 Uphill Sprint
    Del Toro +0
    Pogačar -4
    Evenepoel -6
    Seixas -13

  • Stage 3 Summit Finish
    Pogačar +0
    Seixas -12
    Evenepoel -14
    Del Toro -14

  • Stage 6 Summit Finish
    Pogačar +0
    Del Toro -3:03
    Evenepoel -3:07
    Seixas -3:07

  • Stage 10 Medium Mountain Stage
    Pogačar +0
    Evenepoel -36
    Seixas -38
    Del Toro -1’41

  • Stage 14 Summit Finish
    Pogačar +0
    Del Toro -42
    Seixas -44
    Evenepoel -58

  • Stage 15 Summit Finish
    Evenepoel +0
    Pogačar -4
    Del Toro -12
    Seixas -1:08

  • Stage 16 Individual Time Trial
    Evenepoel +0
    Pogačar -28
    Seixas -1:16
    Del Toro -1:21

  • Stage 19 Summit Finish
    Pogačar +0
    Evenepoel -2:39
    Del Toro -2:51
    Seixas -2:55

  • Stage 20 Summit Finish

    Evenepoel +0
    Pogačar -45
    Del Toro -45
    Seixas -2:35

Week 1 (Stages 1-10)
Del Toro -3:27
Evenepoel -3:30
Seixas -3:55

Week 2 (Stages 11-15)
Evenepoel -1:30
Seixas -2:28
Del Toro -2:31

Week 3 (Stages 16-21)
Evenepoel -1:26
Del Toro -3:44
Seixas -5:33

The above graph and week-by-week breakdown show that, in contrast to last year’s duel, which stalled out in the third week, Tadej Pogačar kept piling on his winning margin throughout the entire race.

  • After his opening blow in the Stage 6 jaunt through the Pyrenees, he continued to put time between himself and his key rivals, with only Remco Evenepoel keeping his third week time losses under two minutes.

    • This is even more impressive when we consider that he had minimal support, with his UAE team on its last legs, and, outside of the final kilometers of Stage 19, he was essentially riding as a domestique for Del Toro after Jonas Vingegaard’s crash on Stage 15.

Mountain Stages
Evenepoel -5:39
Del Toro -5:58
Seixas -8:42

Uphill Finishes
Evenepoel -32
Seixas -37
Del Toro -1:31

Time Trials
Evenepoel +21
Del Toro -1:35
Seixas -1:43

Bonus Seconds
Evenepoel -36
Del Toro -38
Seixas -54

1) Tadej Pogačar is Still Improving: After just seven career Tour starts, Pogačar has five overall wins and two second places, which is the best record for the first seven Tour starts of any rider’s career, including Eddy Merckx, Jacques Anquetil and Bernard Hinault.

  • At this point, there isn’t much left to say about Pogačar and his domination, especially as he seems to be on an upswing, with the 2026 Tour being his largest-ever Tour de France winning margin.

    • But the most mind-blowing thing about his 2026 Tour is what his Stage 19 ride up Alpe d'Huez, which may have been the best climbing performance in the history of the sport, tells us: even after breaking records and redefining what we thought was possible on the Tour's biggest climbs, he continues to improve year after year.

    • Tadej Pogačar Climbing Performances:

      • Alpe d’Huez 2026 Stage 19
        Time:
        35:26
        Estimated Power:
        451 watts (7w/kg)
        VAM:
        1,895

      • Plateau de Beille 2024 Stage 15
        Time:
        39:50

        Estimated Power: 447 watts (6.98w/kg)
        VAM: 1,887

    • And even if the Tour eschewed mountaintop finishes as a way to blunt Pogačar’s dominance, as we saw on Sunday in Paris, it wouldn’t work, since he has the pure racing ability to figure out how to win no matter what the terrain.

2) The Overall Level of Contentment in the GC Group Means It Will Be Hard to Find a True Rival to Pogačar: When we look down the GC standings below Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel certainly stands out as a rider who has taken a massive step up and now looks like a top-tier Grand Tour contender that could challenge for the win at any stage race without Pogačar.

  • Additionally, Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas, especially considering their ages (22 and 19), both looked like future stage racing stars.

  • But one important thing to note, and one major obstacle to any of these riders challenging Pogačar at future Grand Tours, is that outside of Paul Seixas being openly disappointed in his fourth-place finish (which is incredible and nearly unprecedented for a teenager), this Tour was unique in that nearly every top contender in the overall top ten was likely thrilled with their finish.

    • For example, if we look at the top ten and imagine how each rider would grade their ride relative to their pre-race goals, there aren’t many that would get below an A.

      • How Riders in the Top Ten Would Grade Their Performance:
        1) Pogačar: A+
        2) Evenepoel: A+
        3) Del Toro: A
        4) Seixas: C
        5) Martinez: A
        6) Skjelmose: A
        7) Ayuso: C
        8) Carapaz: A
        9) Pidcock: C
        10) Jegat: A+

  • This exercise shows us just how difficult it will be to mount any significant challenge to Pogačar in future Tours, since, outside of Paul Seixas, there aren’t currently any serious overall contenders unhappy with their finish, and, as such, willing to take risks.

    • But, considering Seixas’ incredible, and near-unprecedented ride at this race for a teenager, and the natural improvement he will see simply due to his body maturing, it may not be long before he is serving up a legitimate challenge to Pogačar.

3) Stage Wins Are Becoming the Domain of Superstars: Even if we look past Pogačar’s domination atop the Overall Classification, the Tour, and the sport as a whole, we are seeing a massive concentration amongst a few elite teams and riders in terms of both Grand Tour overall and stage wins.

  • For example, over the four-year period beginning in 2023, only five riders (Roglič, Vingegaard, Kuss, Pogačar, S.Yates) and three teams (Visma, UAE and Red Bull) have won the 11 Grand Tours on offer.

    • And, over the same time period, just two teams (UAE and Visma) and two riders (Vingegaard and Pogačar) have won the Tour de France.

      • But while pooling at the top of the GC leaderboard can happen, this shrinking pool of winners is now trickling down to the stage winners as well.

        • For example, at the 2026 Tour, just 12 riders and 10 teams won stages.

          • And, if it feels like it’s harder than ever for riders to win, it is because the stage win list is made up almost entirely of top-tier riders, with just six riders ranked outside the Top Ten UCI Points Rankings in 2025 winning a stage, and only two riders (Wærenskjold and Schmid) ranked outside the top 40 having stage win success.

            • This tells us that stage hunting, usually the domain of lesser-funded, more rag-tag teams, is also becoming less aspirational, and the strict domain of the ultra-elite teams and riders.

              • The message to teams looking to succeed at the sport’s biggest race will now be that they need to increase their budgets even further to get even the most minor of successes, which will continue to drive up the prices for riders capable of contending for these stages, and will likely create an even further bifurcation of the sport.

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