Can Payton Tolle be Penciled in as a Rookie of the Year Finalist?

My favorite storyline of this entire season lies within the rookie class. The youth movement continues to take the center stage of baseball and it’s been a delight to watch. It’s not just the American League, but both leagues. The National League has been a treat, with JJ Wetherholt (Cardinals) has been one of the most well rounded players in this rookie class, whereas Sal Stewart (Reds) is having one of the best offensive seasons for a rookie in Reds history.

Boston Red Sox pitcher Payton Tolle pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning of a baseball game in Toronto, Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP)

Shift to the American League and it’s a loaded wagon of a class. Kevin McGonigle is the clear cut favorite and is most likely taking home the hardware. For a guy who never saw Triple A, had a strong spring training and showed he’s ready for the show. Versatile defensively and has also been a force at the plate. Munetaka Murakami has been everything as advertised, with his display of raw power and he can in fact hit velocity. He’s cooled down a bit after returning from injury, but still a very likely favorite to be a finalist. The fun discussion lies within the final spot for a finalist. There are a lot of good names in the American League, but Payton Tolle should have his name on that ballot at the end of the season.

There are a few names that can make a significant push for the award in the tail end of the season. Kazuma Okamoto has been a good to solid bat overall for the Blue Jays, having a .728 OPS and 105 wRC+. He is in an arms race with Murakami for the most home runs by a Japanese born rookie. Chase DeLauter has been as advertised for the Guardians. He got off to a rocking start with five home runs in his first seven games and has 13 on the year. He’s sixth among rookies in OPS, fourth in wRC+, and tied for fifth in fWAR (2.6). Truthfully, there are two names that are well above these guys and it’s going to be a pitchers duel the rest of the way.

Parker Messick has been a great rookie for the Guardians and one of the most reliable arms for that rotation. He ranks in the 98th percentile for pitching run value and leads all rookie pitchers in fWAR (3.5). However, when you look at the body of work for both players, Tolle has a very compelling case to be made and the body of work speaks for itself.

When you look at the innings pitched, Messick does have the leg up on Tolle. He has pitched 142.1 innings compared to Tolle’s 115, which comes out to four more starts as well. For Tolle, he has 128 strikeouts compared to Messick’s 142. He has a lower walk rate, as his is 6.7% compared to Messick at 7.1% and the strikeout rate is much higher (Tolle at 27.8% to Messick at 25.1%). I am one who loves K-BB%, and Tolle has him beat by 3%. Also, he has given up three fewer earned runs than Messick. Granted, I know there is an innings gap, but that does stick out too. That batting average against and the WHIP are very close.

When you look at the base line statistics here’s what they end up being as a whole:

Tolle: 2.97 ERA. 3.21 FIP. 27.8 K%. 115 IP. 128 K. 3.1 fWAR

Messick: 2.59 ERA. 3.25 FIP. 25.1 K%. 142.1 IP. 142 K. 3.5 fWAR.

Messick may have the longevity in terms of innings, but what Tolle has been able to do in four less starts is pretty special. If Tolle had the same amount of innings or more, the results are likely a ton better too. Tolle is currently on a very special run, as he has a 1.35 ERA in the month of August, set a career high in strikeouts in his start against the Athletics (14), and being the first pitcher in MLB history to do so in under 85 pitches. Furthermore, he set a Red Sox franchise record for the most consecutive batters retired in a row during his Blue Jays start (17). He has pitched like an ace and is the ace that this staff absolutely needs.

This rookie class is loaded and Tolle is a big part of that. The next big question is what does that extension look like because if there was a young player to look to locking up, Tolle is the next in line.