Texas shocks the nation

Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated the heavily favored Republican in a special state senate runoff election on Saturday. Here’s why it matters and what we can learn from it.

First, this victory is about as big a political shockwave as we’re likely to see before the general election in November. The senate district Rehmet won by 14 points is a district drawn by Republicans for Republicans centered on Tarrant County, known as the last reliably Red urban county in America.

To put it in perspective, Donald Trump won it by 17 points in 2024.

That’s a 31 point swing in 15 months.

What’s happened between November 2024 and January 2026 explains a lot of this. Flagrant corruption within the Trump administration. Cruelty as a feature of both domestic and international policy. And a fundamental failure by Republicans to improve the lives of those they should be serving: prices are still too high; healthcare is being further cut (in a state that is already dead last in healthcare access); and the wealthy and powerful are further enriched, shielded from justice (e.g. Epstein files) and prioritized over working people.

Rehmet’s blue-collar background was a powerful contrast to the Republicans in charge. An Air Force veteran who enlisted at the age of 19, he is an aircraft mechanic who serves as the president of his local union. And he’s a fighter at a time that this country is looking for fighters. He could have passed on this race (who in their right mind thought he could win?), but he knew too many people being left behind by Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott and the Republicans who run the state legislature. The odds weren’t in his favor, but he didn’t seem to care. He was a longshot taking on the bigshots for all the folks who are made to feel like an afterthought.

But then, despite the odds, Rehmet over performed in the November 2025 election that set up Saturday’s runoff. Defying all expectations, he won 48% against two other Republican candidates. Democrats celebrated; Republicans panicked. In full freak-out mode, they poured a fortune into television ads and mailers, hoping to keep Rehmet’s votes in the runoff under 50%.

All told, they spent more than $6 million during the special election and runoff trying to hold on to this seat. Donald Trump vainly sought to gin support by posting his endorsement multiple times in the final days. Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick as well as some of the big right-wing influencers did their best. Steve Bannon had the Republican candidate on his show, where she blamed a vast left-wing conspiracy (including the organization I lead, Powered by People) for the unexpectedly tight contest she found herself in.

In contrast, Rehmet raised and spent just over $380,000.

This was a triumph of people power over money, change over more of the same. Rehmet focused on door knocking, grassroots canvassing and volunteer-led organizing. And supporting organizations focused on opportunities to innovate. The Texas Democratic Party piloted a program to improve the turnout of older low-propensity Democratic voters by sending Vote by Mail applications to those who are eligible while Powered by People volunteers called and texted these voters to answer questions they might have and encourage them to vote. This focus on making personal connections with voters produced a higher than expected turnout and was far more effective in persuading those voters to choose the Democrat than the millions spent on TV ads by the Republicans.

This election confirms what we’ve suspected for some time now: Trump is weak.

If he can’t help a Republican candidate who outspent her opponent 10-1 in an R+17 district, what is he going to be able to do for the Republican congressional candidates he needs to hold on to the House of Representatives? What does it mean for the Texas senate race where, if James Talarico or Jasmine Crockett prevails over John Cornyn or Ken Paxton, Democrats will have 51 votes in the Senate?

2026 is starting to feel a lot like 2018, when Trump’s deeply unpopular presidency and Democrat’s willingness to run unconventional grassroots campaigns changed the balance of power in Congress. While I came up a little short against Ted Cruz that year, we helped Democrats win big races throughout the state (including both Colin Allred and Lizzy Fletcher who defeated incumbent Republican Congressmen), generated historic levels of turnout and became the first Democrat to pick up Tarrant County (where Rehmet just won) in decades. While the county reverted to Republicans in Biden’s midterm (2022), and the legislature soon changed the voting laws to make it even harder for a Democrat to win, I feel like something even more seismic is happening today. Saturday night is the first clear sign of it.

But there’s even better news.

Unlike 2018, and for the first time in Texas history, there is a Democrat running for every state house seat (150 of them), every state senate seat (31) and every U.S. Congressional seat (38) this November. Many of them have shorter odds than Rehmet did in this election, meaning we are potentially going to see a lot more upsets. Democrats are fighting on every front, forcing Republicans to spend resources defending every seat.

Democrats are finally on offense.

We are going to win the competitive seats you’d expect us to win in a Trump midterm, and, more importantly for what we face this year, we’re going to win where no one thought we had a chance.

Given that Trump is likely to attempt a steal of this election (interfering with vote by mail, seizing voting machines, sending in federal agents to terrorize Democratic-majority communities, for starters) we need to win overwhelmingly and in places where Democrats have struggled in years past. The American public must be convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that Trump’s party has lost the midterms, so that, when he attempts to overturn the results, the country will refuse to follow and insist that the legitimate, lawful victories of Democrats over Republicans – democracy over tyranny – are honored.

Saturday night Taylor Rehmet showed us the way.

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