The Prime Minister is on summer hols this week but that hasn’t stopped the government from looking under the sofa cushions to find money to fund his commitments while staying within the fiscal rules.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend? Say it ain’t so for Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe who are rumoured to be pairing up.
The Burnham bubble may be about to burst as the discourse around the early prison release scheme heats up, showing some initial fractures in the party.
Don’t let passport queues get you down. We have all the answers to all your Entry/Exit System questions in this week’s edition.
Read on for your Weekend Wire.
This week, a new report by the Fraser of Allander Institute and Prosper, uncovered a long list of Brexit-related barriers holding back Scottish services exports - from the recognition of qualifications and visa issues, to data regulations and requirements to set up a local office. The list goes on.
Even though the UK’s services trade has held up better than goods since Brexit, the report shows just how much more growth is possible under a more ambitious deal. Our own independent modelling shows that Scotland would see an economic boost of at least £583m in a year with EU membership.
The report points out that Brexit has given the UK freedom to regulate independently in some sectors, such as AI. But after this week’s science fiction-worthy reports of AI models breaking out of their containment and hacking outside systems, it’s worth asking how much ‘freedom to innovate’ we should actually be encouraging?
We couldn’t help but be envious of the new EU rules that came into force this week, requiring chatbots to disclose when they are AI, and for AI-generated content to be labelled as such. In a world of deepfakes and disinformation, the UK could take a page out of the EU’s rulebook.
Cell-Shocked
The early prison release scheme is becoming the first major challenge under Burnham’s direction. The scheme, which began under Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government and was expanded by former Prime Minister Keir Starmer in 2024, is designed to ease the capacity issues facing prisons by releasing eligible offenders early.
The initial plan to release 6,000 prisoners was paused after revelations that two men currently behind bars for the death of a police officer would qualify for early release.
This week however, it was announced the scheme will go ahead with 5,000 prisoners set to be released starting in October, one month later and a thousand prisoners fewer than originally planned.
While the government will exclude rapists and child sex offenders from those eligible, the exclusion won’t apply to offences committed before a change to the law in 2003 regardless of when the offender was brought to justice. Those given custodial sentences for domestic abuse, and criminals guilty of manslaughter, will also remain eligible for early release.
Backbench Labour MPs and survivor groups have disavowed this decision as it increases fear among survivors and puts their safety at risk.
The police recorded 816,493 domestic abuse-related crimes in England and Wales between March 2024 and March 2025. In the same year, approximately 3.8 million people aged 16 years and over experienced domestic abuse.
Harrowing stats that show the extent of this problem.
Make it make cents
After weeks of good vibes based announcements from Andy Burnham and a rapidly approaching budget date, the government is providing clarity on how these costly promises will be funded. Well, some clarity…
As ministers spend their summers drawing up plans to boost economic growth, they have former Chancellor Rachel Reeves to thank for changes to the fiscal rules. Her amendments will allow the government to count spending on infrastructure or equity in companies as “assets” to be offset against the cost of borrowing, helping ministers stay within the fiscal rules. This could result in £9bn a year in extra cash to spend on infrastructure, housing and support for businesses- all areas Burnham has promised to fix. The money could also give John Healey something positive to announce on 28th October.
If the government is looking to supercharge the economy and genuinely create growth in every postcode, we know exactly where they can find it: EU membership.
Rocket No-man
NASA has been quick to assure the world the rocket that crashed into the moon earlier this week posed no immediate danger to Earth. Phew!
After delivering a lunar lander, the rocket’s upper stage went out of control and smashed into the Moon with the force of approximately three tons of TNT. For those already turning to Google to learn what a lunar lander is, your authors included, it is a type of spacecraft designed to land on the surface of the moon.
Experts are taking a glass half full approach to the crash, hoping it will inform our understanding of the lunar surface and any future collisions, especially as Moon exploration continues. NASA is in the process of building a Moon Base, to serve as an outpost near the Moon’s South Pole for science, technology, and eventual human operations.
On the border line
It’s been just over a week since the migrant crisis in Ceuta kicked off, when nearly 72,000 migrants crossed into North African Spanish territory between 30 and 31 July.
The EU’s interior ministers met earlier this week over concerns about Spain’s handling of the crisis and the subsequent suspension of Italy’s Schengen agreement with Spain. Since Italy and Spain do not share a land border, this would only apply to flights - which simply means extra checks for passengers.
Irish Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan, who chaired the meeting, said the EU stood in solidarity with Spain and that migration required “a united European response.”
Our CEO Naomi Smith interviewed former diplomat Arthur Snell about the messy geo-politics of it all.
Schengen-anigans
While we’re on the topic…
There has been a lot of confusion and queues this summer for British travellers looking to enter the Schengen area after the new EU Entry/Exit System (EES); a digital border system, came into full effect.
The EES is another line item in the never ending list of Brexit consequences. If the UK had remained a member of the EU, the checks would not apply to British citizens, even though the UK was never inside the Schengen zone.
If you have questions, don’t worry, we have drafted an FAQ that has all the answers.
Chain reaction
This week, our Substack explores the economic challenges facing young people and the risk of creating a lost generation; one plagued by apathy, an increasingly competitive job market and the threat of AI.
We also looked at Burnham’s re-industrialisation strategy and how EU membership can create the growth needed, £92bn to be exact, to support his domestic agenda, a move that his constituents fully support.
Drama Kings
In arguably one of the worst link ups of all time, Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe are flirting with a possible reconciliation between their two parties, Farage’s Reform UK and Lowe’s Restore Britain.
The pair have been publicly arguing for months after Lowe left Reform to create the radical-right Restore Britain. Lowe’s party has been slowly eating away at Reform’s polling, especially after Elon Musk crowned Lowe his new golden boy, effectively turning his back on the former right-wing throuple.
A reunited Reform and Restore would aim to unite the right vote ahead of the next general election.
Chris Jones, from Hoylake, Wirral, has become the first patient in the world to receive a new vaccine which doctors hope could significantly improve the treatment of some forms of advanced lung cancer.
The vaccine uses cells from her own tumour to help create a synthetic DNA which will hopefully make immunotherapy far more effective.
Her reason for volunteering? Her eldest daughter who, ten years ago, died from breast cancer.
In Chris’ own words “I’m not ready to go yet, I’ve got things to do.”
This week, Westminster council did more for national unity than the World Cup and Euros combined. Their draft proposal to ban “vertical drinking” in Soho and large parts of London’s West End was met with fury and scorn from industry and pub goers across the country.
Cheers to them!
Nigel Farage will go head to head with Count Binface in the Clacton by-election.
A level results are out next week… teens everywhere rejoice, and GDP estimates for June will be released.
See you then.
Eliza Snider and Oliver Nicholls
Senior Press Officer and Senior Policy Manager
Best for Britain
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