NVIDIA (NVDA) Next Up - What’s Better Than a Triple Play?

Walmart (WMT) is currently trading lower on earnings for the sixth time in the last seven quarters and having its worst earnings reaction day since its May 2022 report. While 90%+ of S&P 500 companies have now reported quarterly numbers this earnings season, the big kahuna remains: NVIDIA (NVDA).

NVDA is set to report next Wednesday (8/26) after the close.

Below is a price chart of NVDA since early 2022, which encompasses the entirety of the AI Boom that began with the release of ChatGPT in November of that year. On a split-adjusted basis, NVDA has seen shares rise from roughly $11 in late 2022 up to $216, a gain of roughly 1,700%.

While NVDA has seemed like “dead money” for the better part of the last year, the long-term chart below is still trending nicely higher and looks quite healthy.

Bespoke’s Earnings Explorer tool is a great way for investors to research earnings trends for the companies they’re most interested in. Below is a chart from the tool of NVDA quarterly revenues versus consensus estimates since the turn of the century.

Check out the explosion in revenues since late 2022 and the massive beats versus estimates. Thank you ChatGPT!

Along with the chart above, our Earnings Explorer also features individual quarterly results for stocks dating back to 2001.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is a triple-play king, meaning it consistently beats EPS and revenue estimates and raises guidance. As shown below, the company has reported 14 earnings triple plays in the 20 quarterly reports it has had in the last five years. NVDA has also reported three earnings triple plays in a row.

Not that the triple plays have mattered recently for NVDA’s stock price! On each of NVDA’s last three triple plays, shares have actually finished down on the day.

For most companies, it’s not common to report an earnings triple play, but for NVDA, it’s now expected. Recent negative share-price reactions to the positive news are evidence of that.

In baseball, you can’t do better than a triple play on defense. Fortunately for NVDA CEO Jensen Huang, he’s not playing baseball, but it looks as if NVDA needs to do even more than simply reporting a triple play to get a post-earnings boost.

Our Earnings Explorer also lets you break down historical reports by quarter. For NVDA, the stock has historically averaged one-day gains of more than 1% in reaction to its Q1, Q3, and Q4 earnings reports, but it has averaged a decline of 0.47% on its Q2 reports. That looks bad, but most of the Q2 average decline comes from two extreme down days after reporting earnings back in August 2003 (-20%) and August 2004 (-35%). Back then, NVDA was still making GPUs, but it was focused entirely on graphics and computer gaming. Crypto mining and AI were still more than a decade away from being on Jensen’s radar.

Want to try Bespoke’s Earnings Explorer for yourself? Start a trial to Bespoke All Access today!