Sep'25: Debasement, Demographics & Liquidity

GM and a delayed Deal Flow Digest for you.

I was at Token2049 in Singapore this week and although I didn’t attend the main event, dominating all the talk was Stablecoins / RWAs, PerpDEXes and BTC - and where we are in the cycle.

Happy BTC ATH Day to those who celebrate :)

Everything’s up… in dollars. What if the denominator is the variable? Price the same assets in gold or BTC and the picture flips: equities and housing look weak. The point isn’t that assets are exploding; the denominator is moving.

Call it a unit-of-account slippage. It explains why the system feels “off”, wages don’t keep up, debt balloons, and policy looks reactive. We still speak USD, benchmark in USD, and then wonder why purchasing power doesn’t square with headlines.

This is a normal late-cycle pattern: when the measuring stick weakens, people feel richer in nominal terms, but when you mark to scarcer collateral, the story is flatter….or worse.

Now layer in Raoul Pal’s “Everything Code” and there’s some VERY STRONG positive tailwinds for crypto and long-duration risk assets, namely:

• Debasement: servicing the debt stock requires ongoing balance-sheet expansion somewhere.

• Demographics: aging + slower productivity pushes policymakers toward credit/liquidity over time.

• Liquidity plumbing: QE/QT, TGA, RRP, swap lines—the pipes that push/pull reserves.

It’s all the debasement / liquidity trade. We have a demographic shift and not enough economic activity to service the debt. We need to “grow our way out of debt.”

When system-wide liquidity expands, long-duration risk tends to rip, especially high-beta tech and crypto.

“Global Total Liquidity” (GTL) is Raoul’s measure and it isn’t just M2—it’s a composite of (1) government/CB balance sheets, (2) banking-system liquidity, and (3) policy/“monetary tools” that push/pull reserves and credit.

GTL goes up, NASDAQ / BTC go up. Since 2009, GTL explains 96% variability in Tech Stocks. 90% in Bitcoin. Debate the specifics, perhaps, but the direction is very clear.

Yes, geopolitics, tariffs, and idiosyncratic shocks matter. But zoom out: adoption-driven networks (Tech/AI/crypto) live on the long-duration end of the curve; they’re levered to liquidity and the debasement bid…“Everything else is noise.”

We’re “still early” in a specific sense: US policy is getting less hostile, stablecoins are maturing, RWAs are just starting to move on-chain, and Web2 value chains are being pulled on-chain where it makes sense. “Active wallets/IPs” aren’t perfect, but the rate of change is what matters. AI may be scaling faster, but you can’t own “AI” directly; you can own the internet of value.

Zoom out. Crypto market capitalization will be at 100T in 10 years.

Strap in. If your yardstick is melting, the question isn’t “why are assets up,” it’s what do I own that beats the yardstick?

Lots of Digital Asset Treasuries Companies (DATs). Additional funding rounds found in the google sheets link!

Forward Industries | Post-IPO | CeFi | $1.65B | 2025-09-11
Forward Industries is becoming a Solana Treasury Company.

StablecoinX | Post-IPO | DeFi | $530M | 2025-09-06
StablecoinX is a stablecoin issuer that has committed to launching an ENA financial strategy and plans to list on the Nasdaq under the stock code USDE.

Helius Medical Technologies | Post-IPO | Others | $500M | 2025-09-14
A neurotech medical company raising capital to establish a Solana Treasury as part of its platform’s next phase.

Flying Tulip | Seed | DeFi | $200M | 2025-09-28
The latest from DeFi pioneer Andre Cronje, Flying Tulip is an adaptive trading protocol targeting higher returns through a unified liquidity experience.

Fnality | Series C | CeFi | $136M | 2025-09-22
Fnality aims to settle tokenized transactions with peer-to-peer digital cash via DLT infrastructure, growing from its Utility Settlement Coin roots.

Tron Inc | Undisclosed | CeFi | $110M | 2025-09-01
Tron Inc has strengthened its position as the largest public holder of TRX tokens with an expanded treasury of over $220M.

Zero Hash | Series D | CeFi | $104M | 2025-09-22
Zero Hash powers financial system 2.0 by enabling businesses to integrate crypto and modern finance tools directly into their platforms.

Gemini | Private | CeFi | $50M | 2025-09-08
Gemini received a $50M boost from Nasdaq just ahead of its anticipated IPO, alongside regulatory moves to enable tokenized stock trading.

RedotPay | Strategic | Others | $47M | 2025-09-24
RedotPay, a Hong Kong-based crypto payments startup, hit unicorn status after a $47M strategic round fueled by growth in stablecoin adoption.

VCs are continuing to announce their new raises.

• 2025‑09‑18: Archetype announces $100 million Fund III, backing startups in blockchain performance, stablecoin infrastructure, onchain social, and the intersection of AI and crypto.

• 2025‑09‑12: Onigiri Capital launches $50 million blockchain investment fund targeting early-stage protocol, infrastructure, and DeFi builders.

• 2025‑09‑05: Sora Ventures launches Asia’s first Bitcoin treasury fund, with plan to buy $1B in BTC within six months to bridge traditional financial institutions and Bitcoin macro exposure.

As a reminder, if you are interested in learning more about Bankless Ventures Fund II, please fill out this form and we will be in touch!

Upcoming

ETHGlobal Online | Oct 10 - 31
Virtual. $100k in prizes.

ETHGlobal Buenos Aires | Nov 21 - 23
Buenos Aires. $500k in prizes.

Ongoing

Hedera Africa Hackathon | July - November
Virtual. $1M in prizes

Colosseum Cypherpunk | Sep 25 - October 30
Virtual. $2.5M in prizes

Finished (results in links)

World Computer | July 18 - October
Virtual. $300k in prizes

DuckChain X AWS | August 25 - Sept 1
Virtual. $1.1M in prizes

ETHGlobal New Delhi | Sep 26 - 28
New Delhi. $175k in prizes.

Upcoming

a16z Speedrun | Oct 7
San Francisco

Alliance | Apply by Nov 5
Virtual

Stanford Blockchain Accelerator
Virtual

That’s a wrap for September!

Thank you and good luck out there!

Ben Lakoff, CFA
https://twitter.com/benlakoff