Every December, the crypto industry does the same ritual: publish “predictions” for the next year.
I pulled together 26 institutional and expert sources (listed at the bottom including Bitwise, Bankless, a16z crypto, Galaxy, Pantera, Coinbase, Messari, Delphi, Grayscale, and more) and consolidated the consensus, contrarians, drivers, scenarios, and investable opportunities in crypto for 2026.
In general, the crypto industry is currently undergoing a structural transformation, moving from a speculative subculture into “invisible infrastructure”. As we look toward 2026, the era of “weirdos and true believers” is being superseded by a regime of institutional maturation, where the technology “disappears” into everyday financial products.
This year I wanted something more useful: a scorecard for 2025 (what was forecast vs what happened) and a structured pulse check for 2026 (where experts broadly agree, where they diverge and what to watch).
Part I: 2025 > What was forecast, and how it panned out
Across the major prediction sets I consolidated last year, the common story was:
Bitcoin-led institutionalization
Stablecoins becoming real payments plumbing
Crypto x AI / agents colliding with on-chain rails
Tokenization + DeFi revenue turning crypto apps into “financial products”
What they got right:
Stablecoins “graduated.” They shifted from “crypto liquidity” to real settlement infrastructure with mainstream adoption momentum.
Tokenization became tangible. Tokenized treasuries/MMFs moved from pilots to repeatable product distribution.
Policy got real. Strategic reserve / stockpile talk became a credible policy surface, not just Twitter theater.
Where they missed: Exact numbers and price targets. The directional calls were mostly right, but forecasts were overconfident on precision (agent % of tx, TVL thresholds, specific price levels) and underpriced how quickly definitions and measurement would shift.
2025 takeaway was that the story wasn’t “which chain won.” It was crypto becoming boring infrastructure in the places TradFi already lives: dollars, credit, collateral, and distribution.
Looking back, 2025’s accuracy stemmed from underestimating volatility while nailing the “boring” utility shift. The year set up 2026 as crypto’s “grown-up” phase.
Part II: 2026 >: The consensus, the contrarian edges, and the real “why now”
2026 Consensus Ideas
If 2025 was “institutional narratives get louder,” 2026 is being framed as: crypto’s grown-up year.
The 2026 base case is crypto “disappearing into everything else”: stablecoins and tokenization as boring rails, DeFi as pro-grade market structure and credit, and apps/agents driving UX abstraction.
This means more real integration into finance, and more real risk (security, enforcement, macro policy backlash.
Consensus (6+ sources) focuses on maturation over speculation.
Stablecoins become core infrastructure: Payments, settlement, on-chain FX, and yield-bearing “cash” products keep scaling.
Tokenization / RWAs move from pilots → distribution: Tokenization becomes less about “is it possible?” and more about “who has distribution?” Treasuries/credit come first because they’re clean, standardizable, and collateral-native.
“Perpification” + pro market structure keep eating share: Perps continue to absorb speculative volume and increasingly serve as the simplest financial wrapper for many exposures. The new angle: as perps scale, the market must professionalize (risk engines, liquidation design, collateral standards, terminals).
DeFi grows up into credit + packaged yield (“meta-yield”): Expect more undercollateralized lending attempts, more modular lending primitives, and more “vault abstractions” that package outcomes.
Privacy + security become moats (and table stakes): Institutions want privacy. Retail often underweights it until forced. ZK/FHE and private orderflow rails show up as recurring “moat” predictions.
Regulatory Clarity as Tailwind: Bipartisan laws like CLARITY Act unlock trillions. Enforcement creates first-mover edges.
AI agents + DePIN become real workflows: Agents need programmable money rails and identity. DePIN needs provable demand and revenue. Both are moving from narrative → implementation.
Apps > chains (superapps win distribution): The interface becomes the moat. Aggregation wins. It’s less “which chain is best” and more “who owns the user relationship.”
Contrarian Calls
These aren’t consensus, but I found them interesting:
Major DeFi Hack Crisis: $10B+ exploit sparks international fallout (Standard Crypto).
U.S. Chokepoint on Bitcoin: Bans on private custody, pegged to dollar at banks (Standard Crypto).
Ethereum Back to PoW Advocacy: Evangelists push revival due to PoS flaws (Standard Crypto).
AI Agent Billionaire: Agent trades to billionaire status, sparking seizure debates (Standard Crypto).
DAT Failures and Compression: 5+ treasury firms shut down (Galaxy).
No Solana Inflation Reduction: SIMD-0411 fails (Galaxy).
AI-Driven Societal Alienation: Crypto as “last free port” amid labor obsolescence and mind colonization (RedPhone Crypto).
Supercycle vs. Off-Year Debate: Sustained bull or winter? (Fidelity).
New Memecoin King >$100B: Speculation undefeated (Standard Crypto).
Stablecoins Blamed for EM Destabilization: Political backlash (Bitwise).
BTC Less Volatile Than Nvidia: Cycle truly breaks (Bitwise).
ZEC Repriced as Private Hedge: Application money emerges (Messari).
“Why Now” Drivers
A lot of these predictions rhyme because people are assuming the same causal stack:
Regulatory Shift: From frameworks to enforcement (GENIUS/CLARITY Acts) unlocks institutional flows and compliance tools.
Distribution Bundling: Superapps own customer relationships, hiding complexity for mainstream adoption.
Yield + Market Maturation: Perps, credit, and yield packaging evolve toward “real finance” UX.
AI-Driven Machine Economy: Agents need low-cost micropayments and identity—crypto fits where TradFi can’t.
Privacy/Security as Table-Stakes: Institutions demand moats as on-chain value grows, accelerating ZK/FHE.
Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear)
Base Case (Most Likely): Stablecoins/RWAs compound; perps/DeFi credit mature selectively; macro “constructive but uneven” with dispersion—stock-picker’s market. BTC hits new highs in a chaotic year; DeFi/prediction markets expand steadily; L2 consolidation (e.g., Base leads).
Bull Case (Upside Regime): Cycle breaks decisively—volatility dampens, ETFs/institutions accelerate, majors draw trillions. Sovereign/endowment BTC additions; RWAs 10x; AI agents scale to billionaire status; ETFs absorb >100% new supply.
Bear Case (Downside Regime): Major hack or enforcement wave; stablecoins scapegoated for EM issues; liquidity tightens. U.S. chokepoints on BTC/privacy; quantum threats loom; altcoins siloed further.
Key Risks (Ranked)
Systemic Security Event: Major DeFi hack erodes trust and triggers policy backlash.
Regulatory Chokepoints: Shift from frameworks to crackdowns, favoring incumbents.
Macro Liquidity Reversal: Uneven flows lead to ETF outflows and stagnation.
Stablecoin Backlash: Political heat over EM destabilization or dollarization.
Agent-Driven Fraud: New vectors from autonomous AI erode confidence.
Fragmentation/Closed Loops: Walled stablecoin gardens limit composability.
“What Wins” Map (Investable Surfaces)
Summing up these predictions, this is how I’d think about opportunity if the consensus is right:
Rails: Stablecoin issuers/distributors (banks/fintechs), tokenization stacks (issuance/custody/settlement), on/off ramps, compliance tools.
Market Structure: Perp venues/liquidity (prop-AMMs/CLOBs), prediction infra (Polymarket), terminals routing fragmentation.
Infra Moats: Privacy tech (ZK/FHE/private orderflow), security tooling, DePIN/compute markets (miners as AI providers).
Apps: Superapps (Coinbase/Robinhood), agentic commerce (x402 wallets), “markets as product” (predictions, tokenized collectibles).
Who Disagrees (Dissenting / Tone-Shifting Voices)
Skeptics on “Easy Mode”: Delphi and Coinbase warn of “constructive but uneven” macro—no 2020 liquidity floods; altcoin dispersion persists (Bitcoin decouples, alts siloed).
Cycle Debaters: Fidelity debates supercycle vs. “off-year” winter; Galaxy sees chaos despite highs; Grayscale declares the four-year cycle dead, but Barron’s notes dialed-back targets.
Cultural Mourners: Dougie DeLuca frames crypto “dying” as subculture to become invisible infra; RedPhone Crypto warns of AI alienation, positioning crypto as “last free port” against surveillance.
Philosophical Outliers: Standard Crypto’s wild bets (PoW revival, AI billionaire) and Messari’s ZEC repricing as privacy hedge challenge pure utility narratives.
Final Takeaway: 2026 Predictions
2026 looks like crypto’s inflection point: the shift from “weird experiment” to embedded financial plumbing. Stablecoins and RWAs are the boring winners, while AI and privacy are the frontiers. If 2025 was the year crypto got taken seriously, 2026 is the year it either gets trusted or gets contained. Trust comes from survivable market structure (perps, credit, collateral), privacy/security institutions can actually use, and distribution through superapps normal users already have. Containment comes from enforcement shocks, stablecoin politics, and security failures. The scoreboard is simple: are the rails scaling, and do they hold up under stress?
Appendix: Sources
Top 10 Crypto Funding Rounds
RedotPay | Series B | Others | $107,000,000 | 2025-12-16
Hong Kong-based fintech RedotPay secured $107 million in Series B funding to scale its stablecoin payments platform across 100+ countries. The oversubscribed round was led by Goodwater Capital, with participation from Pantera Capital, Blockchain Capital, and Circle Ventures.
Fuse | Series B | Infrastructure | $70,000,000 | 2025-12-18
Fuse raised $70 million in a Series B round at a reported $5 billion valuation. Fuse Network rewards users with Energy Dollars (a crypto asset) for shifting their electricity consumption to off-peak hours or automating smart devices to help stabilize the grid and enable cheaper, cleaner power. The financing was backed by Balderton Capital and Lowercarbon Capital.
Digital Asset | Strategic | Infrastructure | $50,000,000 | 2025-12-04
Digital Asset Holdings LLC has successfully raised $50 million in a new funding round, with significant contributions from BNY Mellon, Nasdaq Inc, S&P Global, and iCapital. This follows a $135 million funding round earlier this year led by DRW Venture Capital and Tradeweb Markets, which included investors like Citadel Securities and Optiver.
LI.FI | Undisclosed | DeFi | $29,000,000 | 2025-12-11
LI.FI secured $29 million in new funding led by Multicoin Capital and CoinFund. The raise expands its earlier Series A extension and brings total capital raised to $51.7 million. LiFi supplies transaction routing services to fintechs, wallets, and trading platforms. The company handles $8 billion in monthly volume. It calls its platform an “encrypted Google Maps” for navigating blockchain transactions.
Real Finance | Undisclosed | Infrastructure | $29,000,000 | 2025-12-10
Real Finance, an RWA tokenization network, secured $29 million in funding anchored by a $25 million investment from Nimbus Capital plus a $4 million private round led by Magnus Capital. The capital will support expansion of its tokenization and on-chain infrastructure roadmap.
Portal To Bitcoin | Undisclosed | Infrastructure | $25,000,000 | 2025-12-04
Portal to Bitcoin secured $25 million in funding alongside the launch of an atomic OTC trading desk designed for large cross-chain transactions. Investors were not disclosed.
MetaComp | Pre-Series A | CeFi | $22,000,000 | 2025-12-09
MetaComp, a Singapore-based licensed stablecoin cross-border payments and treasury management provider, raised $22 million in Pre-Series A funding. Sky9 Capital led the round.
TenX | Undisclosed | DeFi | $22,000,000 | 2025-12-10
TenX Protocols raised fresh capital to keep building out its DeFi ecosystem, reporting more than C$33 million raised across 2025 via subscription receipts and seed funding. Investors were not disclosed.
Ostium | Series A | DeFi | $20,000,000 | 2025-12-03
Ostium raised $20 million for its Arbitrum-based on-chain perpetuals platform offering exposure to equities, commodities, indices, and FX. The protocol reported $25 billion in cumulative volume, with more than 95% of open interest tied to traditional markets; General Catalyst backed the round.
Bitstack | Series A | DeFi | $15,000,000 | 2025-12-05
Paris-based Bitstack, a Bitcoin savings application, has raised a $15 million Series A round led by 13books Capital, with participation from existing investors.
Click to see all of December’s funding rounds here:
December Crypto VC Fund fundraise Announcements
VCs are continuing to announce their new raises.
2025-12-03: New Crypto Hedge Fund With $100M Seed Capital Targets BTC-Linked Institutional Alpha. A new market-neutral, multi-strategy crypto hedge fund is targeting institutional allocators (family offices, sovereign investors, etc.)
2025-12-04: Entrée Capital Debuts $300M Fund With Focus on AI Agents, DePIN. Entrée Capital unveiled a $300M fund prioritizing AI agents, DePIN, and regulated Web3 infrastructure (early-stage focus).
2025-12-17: Moon Pursuit Capital launches $100M market-neutral crypto fund. Moon Pursuit is launching a $100M market-neutral quantitative crypto fund aimed at lower-volatility, risk-adjusted returns.
As a reminder, if you are interested in learning more about Bankless Ventures Fund II, please fill out this form and we will be in touch!
Hackathons
Upcoming
HackMoney 2026 (ETHGlobal) | Jan 30 – Feb 11, 2026
Online (async). $2,000,000+ in prizes (per ETHGlobal’s “async hackathons” framing, which includes HackMoney).
Ongoing
Mantle Global Hackathon 2025 | Oct 15 – Dec 31, 2025 (submissions into mid-Jan 2026 per timeline coverage)
Online. $150K in prizes.
Finished
BNB Chain x YZi Labs Hack Series: Abu Dhabi | Dec 5 – 6, 2025
Abu Dhabi, UAE (hybrid/in-person). $160K in prizes.
Hedera Africa Hackathon 2025 | (Program ran through Nov 2025; winners to be updated)
Virtual. $1M prize pool; winners/results are posted on the official hackathon site.
Demo Days
Upcoming
Mantle Global Hackathon Demo Day | Feb 1, 2026
Online.
Accelerator Applications
ES Accelerator | Apply by Jan 7, 2026
Hybrid/Global (program details on site; blockchain + frontier tech focus).
Tenity Programs | Open (varies by program)
Global (multiple cities listed; program availability and deadlines vary).
That’s a wrap for December! Wishing everyone a very happy holidays.
Thank you and good luck out there.
Ben Lakoff, CFA
https://twitter.com/benlakoff
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