People are holding their collective breath, and everyone I know can feel it. The vibes I’m picking up are that most Americans and other interested observers are shocked by the dynamics of the 2024 U.S. election so I intend to provide my perspective as a bit of clarity and hope as well….
These are the major factors in any US presidential election (in order of importance) —and they favor the Democrats winning:
The Political Fundamentals of Incumbency Favor the Democrats: Allan Lichtman, historian and longtime presidential prognosticator, has the basics of U.S. political prediction right: He believes (and has proven) that each election is fundamentally an evaluation of the incumbent party’s performance, in this case the Democrats’. He has identified 13 true/false criteria that that quantify the level of success of an incumbent administration and its consequential re-electability. In 2024, these factors favor the Democrats; Lichtman explains them in the video below.
Momentum Favors the Democrats on the Policy Issues: According to polling on the issues, the majority of Americans in 2024 prefer the Democratic Party’s policies on most major issues. The switch of Democratic presidential candidates from Biden to Harris started the momentum this past September towards the Democrats’ policy positions according to Pew, a longtime, reputable polling organization. That momentum continues to the end of October according to the New York Times.
Republicans Are Winning the Less Important ‘Bread and Circuses’ Crowd: It’s fairly indisputable that Republicans have largely cornered the market on emotional manipulation and the escapist-entertainment factor in this election. It’s easier to motivate the public using hate, prejudice, and fear than it is to motivate based on the ideals of love for humanity and genuine hope for the future, but the baser instincts are not as effective when the time comes to actually vote in the sober atmosphere of the election booth. Entertainment is temporary; life is everyday, and people vote based on their everyday life experience.
I grew up in upstate New York and even attended the grand opening of Trump Tower as a teenager in 1984. (Not that it was anything special; the grand opening lasted for months.) The experience was eye-opening because it was around the time that the New York collectively turned against Trump. The turn of tides against Trump wasn’t that different than now. New York in 1984 was a microcosm of the U.S. today in coming to terms with Donald Trump.
Back in 1984, the New York papers and magazines took the opportunity of the opening of Trump Tower to examine what he was really like, and the coverage wasn’t pretty. Even back then, he was a genius salesperson who used his showmanship to distract from his petty, greedy, vengeful personality and racist, small-minded ideas. He was a P.T. Barnum-like figure who believed a sucker was born every minute, and he conned New York for a while, but New Yorkers gradually caught on. His legal problems in the 1980’s started turning New Yorkers against him, but the real turning point was his multiple bankruptcies that came to define him as a loser. Despite his father giving him over 400 million dollars (in 2018 dollars), he couldn’t hold onto his money. His ego was too precious to simply put the money into safe investments so he went bankrupt six times instead. New Yorkers are tolerant of many things, but being an intolerant, bragging, hypocritical loser is not one of them. We don’t like being fooled, and Americans don’t like it either. There were rumours in the 1980’s New York press that Trump hired a polling company to investigate his potential to get elected, and the results were terrible. The majority of New Yorkers didn’t like him so he never tried to get elected back then. He was a failed politician before he even started. Even to this day his homestate of New York and hometown of Queens have never voted for him. To know Trump is to dislike him.
Personally, I see the Left Hand Path as antithetical to bullying, and political bullying at a societal level is no different. Trump is a bully. Satan didn’t fight for his own freedom only to make the rest of us give up ours. The Republicans are not good for those on the LHP.
The Republican Political Party as such has ended: The party has left the political realm and entered the realm of bullying and intimidation; it is no longer a political party but operates more like a gang of conmen, bullies, and their enablers. Even the Ancient Greeks recognized that detachment from shared reality and reliance on hate and fear as motivators is the opposite of politics. The party will hobble along; it is a shell of what it once was.
Dictators are called strongmen because they are fundamentally weak; it’s a sarcastic label. The democratic will of the people is always stronger than authoritarians and dictator-wannabes because it’s led by the ideal wisdom of the heart and mind. It takes time, but the will of the people always ultimately wins. Let’s just hope it’s in time!
All U.S. elections will be important going forward for at least a decade by my estimation. Because the U.S. has only one moderately functional political party expect every election going forward to be the “most important election of our lifetime.”
If you haven’t already, please get out and vote! I did, and you can too.
BROTHER BEASTUS 🖤 🇺🇸
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