Link: https://basilhalperin.com/essays/metaculus-monetary-policy.html
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
I’ve posted a set of questions to the forecasting platform @metaculus on “monetary policy in 2050” These are the questions on future policy for which knowing the answers today would have the highest value IMO (for policymakers, but also for researchers!)
basilhalperin.com
Monetary policy in 2050: evidence from Metaculus
5:04 PM · Apr 26, 2022
14 Reposts · 29 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050? Current forecast (n=19): 53% metaculus.com/questions/8968…
5:04 PM · Apr 26, 2022
1 Like
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
When is the next time the US policy rate will reach the zero lower bound? Current forecast (n=10): 2028 metaculus.com/questions/1046… How many times will the US policy rate reach the zero lower bound by 2050? Current forecast (n=9): 3.3 metaculus.com/questions/1046…
5:04 PM · Apr 26, 2022
2 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
When will the United States abolish physical, non-interest bearing cash? Current forecast (n=14): after 2050 metaculus.com/questions/1046… When will China abolish physical, non-interest bearing cash? Current forecast (n=6): 2034 metaculus.com/questions/1046…
5:04 PM · Apr 26, 2022
1 Like
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting? Current forecast (n=21): 45% 👀 (seems high to me!) metaculus.com/questions/1045…
5:04 PM · Apr 26, 2022
1 Like
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
If you don’t like these forecasts, you can easily make your own! (for free, Metaculus is not a prediction market)
5:04 PM · Apr 26, 2022
2 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
For me as a researcher, these are useful: eg, if the US abolishes cash, then the ZLB ceases to be any kind of constraint, and I should stop researching “optimal monetary/fiscal policy at the ZLB”..! This kind of information is also, obviously, of direct interest for policymakers
5:04 PM · Apr 26, 2022
5 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
More in the post (and at Metaculus!):
basilhalperin.com
Monetary policy in 2050: evidence from Metaculus
5:04 PM · Apr 26, 2022
3 Likes
No posts
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.