Trump: Greenland a “Very Small Ask” - Next Target?

This article has been inspired by a trip one of our Substack community members made to Greenland. Marcy and her husband toured the land and sent some lovely photos (see end).

They were in an exciting place, where the largest remaining untapped oil and gas basin left in the world is located: the Jameson Land Basin.

The Basin has the potential to contribute to the long-term western energy and critical minerals supply, as well as underpin Greenland’s economy for generations.

The Jameson Land Basin is a large, conventional hydrocarbon exploration region, spanning over 8,400 square kilometers in eastern Greenland. Considered one of the world’s last major underexplored onshore oil frontiers, the untapped oil is valued at up to $1 trillion -- the equivalent of 40 billion barrels of oil. It would equal 15% of the oil under the Saudi sands, with the bonus of being within easy pipeline distance of both Europe and North America.

The underlying exploration rights are held by the UK firm 80 Mile Plc.

The U.K. firm gave drilling rights to Texas-based Greenland Energy. Haliburton, one of the world’s largest oilfield services companies, provides project management and support.

Greenland Energy’s chairman and major shareholder, Larry Swets, is reported to be close to Trump.

The company sent a tug boat towing a barge that unloaded about a dozen containers last month. Some drilling-related equipment was brought ashore.

Alarmed, the Greenland government said that the licensee ‘did not have the necessary approvals’ from its mineral resources authority.

Two days later, Trump made a menacing post on his Truth Social platform, showing himself looming over an Greenlandic village.

On news of the dispute, Greenland Energy’s shares lost over half their value, as investors are not backing their criminal activity. Two Canadian companies involved in the venture - including Calgary-based Stampede Drilling and shipping firm Desgagnés - have also halted work.

Operations in East Greenland’s Jameson Land basin were pushed from the 2026–27 winter window to next year.

Greenland Energy has retained Phil McGraw, better known as Dr Phil, a prominent right-wing former chat-show host who served on Trump’s religious freedom commission, to make a documentary series that will “capture the mission of these modern-day wildcatters”.

It has also appointed as a director a US navy veteran who is working on Golden Dome, the missile defence plan for which Trump says controlling Greenland is “vital”.

Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. Decisions about its natural resources rest with its local elected leaders. They now face a delicate choice: they could grant permission for oil drilling, or they could refuse and give Trump a pretext to advance his expansionist agenda.

At the moment Trump is threatening to take Cuba after he digs himself out of his Iran quagmire, so a take-over of Greenland may not be imminent.

On the other hand, the island has only 56,000 residents, so a take-over might not be difficult at first glance.

However, Denmark is a NATO nation, and an attack on Denmark would count as an attack on NATO, which all its members are pledged to protect.

European NATO countries and Canada employ roughly 1.4 times more total active military personnel than the United States. The largest European forces come from France (~204,000), Germany (~180,000), Poland (~164,000), Italy (~160,000), and Turkey (860,000).

The combined force is 1,560,000 soldiers.

If anyone other than Trump were president, it would be an act of folly to even suggest that the US would push against a door like that – especially when you consider that the US is already snarled in Iran and short on weapons.

And that any further adventures would almost certainly trigger an opportunistic assault by China on Taiwan – which would mean the collapse of Western digital technology.

Trump however knows nothing of these facts, and can be counted on to walk off the nearest available cliff as soon as possible.

The only thing he cares about, is to avoid looking weak. Attacking Greenland would avoid that.

In addition, Trump has been lusting after Greenland since his first presidential term, when he suggested that buying it would be ‘strategically nice”.

“Nice” is not a term you normally apply to a strategic target. It’s a bit soft. The Russians, for example, refer to Europe as the “Western Strategic Direction”. It hasn’t even got the dignity of a name.

So the Greenland government is being careful. It issued a statement saying that it “would not be proportionate” to demand the equipment be removed. An application for permission remained under processing, it added.

Greenland is worth every ounce of care. It is unique: it is the world’s largest non-continental island. More than 80% is covered by ice. There are no connecting inter-town roads. It has one of the lowest population densities globally. Its society is an autonomous Inuit-majority culture. Its largest park - the Northeast Greenland National Park - covers nearly half the island. Its brightly painted houses were originally color-coded to identify buildings before street numbers existed. It is home to some of Earth’s oldest rocks, including the Isua Greenstone Belt (3.7 to 3.8 billion years old). It experiences the midnight sun with uninterrupted daylight for months in the summer.

Into this unusual and lovely land travelled Substack adventurer Marcy Antiuk and her husband. She commented that there was “No commercialism. No Starbucks no Macdonald’s…The topography was hilly and rocky down to the water. I loved walking up and down the inclines. It was a pleasant surprise. Loved it…What brought us comfort when asked where we were from and we said USA - with the aside “ not sure I want to admit that “ - the Greenlanders said ‘well one person doesn’t represent everyone.’

Pleasant people.

Here are a few of the pictures they shared.

Thank you Marcy, and thank everyone for following Barry’s Substack, focusing on the meaning behind the headlines. A regular summary of a topical book will provide more depth to enable full subscribers to stay ahead of the conversation.

In the coming weeks we will look at WHAT IF THE PRESIDENT IS AN IDIOT – Trump, power and the death of serious politics – How a reality show became a presidency.

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