As we wind down 2025, we’re at the classic turning point in crypto. The four year cycle would suggest we are at the end of the bull run and transitioning towards a bear market.
2014 - Bitcoin Went Down 30%
2018 - Bitcoin Went Down 73%
2022 - Bitcoin Went Down 64%
2026 - Bitcoin Went ?
It seems obvious what comes next, right? There is a strong case that “this time it’s different”. As we roll into the new year, we might just find that the market steadies itself with fewer sellers waiting in the wings.
Going into Q4 there seemed to be a lot of participants lined up to sell into an expected blow-off top that never came. I expect most of those people have now already sold or rebalanced their positions.
Outside of miners and small sales to fund living expenses and costs it seems unlikely we will have the same downward selling pressure we’ve had in the last few months.
If price does stabilise and start to recover back towards $100k and new all time highs there are going to be a lot of people caught offside that will be forced to recalibrate their positions.
There is some kindling smouldering on top of the ashes and it wouldn’t take much to ignite. The ETH/BTC ratio has been relatively strong in the downturn which is a good sign for wider markets.
Looking ahead we’ve got some really promising areas to keep an eye on:
Zero-knowledge privacy tech is on the rise
As web3 infrastructure matures, we might see more user friendly consumer dApps popping up
There’s always potential for DeFi or NFT’s to reignite as that tech isn’t going away
There are also potential risks going into 2026:
Crypto remains tied to global markets and reliant on macro economics
Trump critical. Any political instability, health issues, or policy reversals under the administration could erode the current regulatory tailwinds
Geopolitical issues such as trade wars, tariffs, or conflicts could disrupt global markets
Resurgent inflation might delay Fed rate cuts, weakening market sentiment and liquidity
Systemic risks from leveraged treasury companies. Weak valuations, mNAV rollercoasters and difficulties raising additional capital.
All weighed in I’m quietly confident that 2026 could be a good year for the blockchain sector. The technology is moving in the right direction, sentiment isn’t misaligned with fundamentals and I expect selling pressure to ease into the new year.
So here’s to a potential rejuvenation of optimism that might just surprise us all. Happy holidays and see you next year ♥️
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