The tradition continues. For the third year running, we gathered ten superstars to predict the future and put their reputations (and BitAurenCoins) where their mouths are. Each person makes a bold prediction, assigns probability odds, and then everyone bets against each other in a ruthless mini-hedge fund battle royale.
2026 brought a twist: we invited AI to play. And yet, for all our collective intelligence - human and artificial - we managed to completely whiff on Venezuela. Not one prediction about Maduro. Not from the humans. Not from the AIs. Not even from OpenAI, who spent the evening shorting everything in sight.
This is particularly embarrassing given our track record of confidently predicting Iranian regime change year after year (spoiler alert: still hasn’t happened).
Of the twelve 2025 predictions, 11 have been resolved and 1 remains stubbornly TBD.
Let me get the painful part out of the way: I came in second-to-last with a soul-crushing -35.64% return. After finishing dead last in 2024 at -53.37%, I’ve now established a firm position in the bottom tier. According to my heavily revised personal metrics, jumping from 12th to 11th place constitutes “trending up.”
The champion was a well-known tech founder who absolutely crushed it with a 49.04% return. A well-known economist took second at 24.22%, followed by a tech leader at 22.91%. Six participants finished in the black.
The wooden spoon went to a former Editor-in-Chief of a major news organization at -55.79%. This continues my theory about journalism’s inexorable decline, now backed by prediction market data.
As a collective, we returned 6.33% - better than US Treasuries and double our pathetic 3.13% from 2024. We’re improving, but Warren Buffett can sleep soundly knowing his throne is safe.
My goal for 2026: finish in the top half. The bar is low but apparently so is my ability to clear it.
This year we made 10 predictions. But here’s where it gets interesting: we invited three AI models to analyze and bet alongside us:
Google Gemini
Anthropic Claude
OpenAI ChatGPT
The AI betting patterns revealed fascinating divergences in reasoning.
Below are the 10 predictions that will determine whether humans or machines have better judgment about 2026:
Public Health:
There will be at least 1,000 cases of measles in the US in 2026 (35% confidence): made by President of PE firm. Nearly everyone agreed on this grim forecast - only one contrarian bet against it.
Media Consumption:
At least 40% of US viewers will watch the 2026 World Cup Finals via streaming services (60% confidence): made by senior partner at global consulting firm. A prediction that captures the relentless march away from traditional broadcast.
Geopolitics:
Peace deal between Israel and Lebanon in 2026 (75% confidence): made by religious leader. Optimistic but specific.
There will still be war in Ukraine at the end of 2026 (75% confidence): made by well-known tech founder. The grim corollary to the previous prediction.
Labor Markets & AI:
Number of customer service jobs at the end of 2026 will decrease from 2025 and fall below 1.8 million (60% confidence): made by one of the top hedge fund executives. The AI displacement thesis, quantified.
Economic Crosscurrents:
US GDP will grow at least 2% in 2026 AND US unemployment will average at least 5% in 2026 (30% confidence): made by tech founder. Both conditions must hit - a bet on simultaneous growth and labor market weakness.
The Mag 7 (market cap weighted) will be up at least 20% from Dec 31, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 (65% confidence): made by tech industry executive. The mega-cap momentum trade continues... or doesn’t.
Politics:
2026 midterms: Democrats take the House AND Republicans hold the Senate (80% confidence): made by former President of defense prime. A split Congress bet that one chamber flips and the other stays red.
Law & Technology:
A federal court rules (sometime in 2026) that using AI as part of a conversation between two people breaks attorney-client privilege (45% confidence): made by a senior national security government official. This generated the most disagreement - peak divisiveness across all participants including the AIs. A coin-flip prediction about a potentially landmark legal development.
Demographics:
Crude birth rates in the US will increase from 2023 to 2024 (50% confidence, baseline: 10.7 births per 1,000 people): made by me. A demographic reversal bet with true 50/50 odds.
The three AI systems approached the 2026 predictions with distinctly different strategies, revealed in their actual chip allocations:
ChatGPT emerged as the ultimate contrarian, taking the field’s most aggressive short position. OpenAI bet against a stunning 8 out of 10 predictions, going negative on everything from the Israel-Lebanon peace deal to AI breaking legal privilege to Democrats taking the House. The only two bets ChatGPT backed were a measles outbreak (8 chips) and World Cup streaming (9 chips). This scorched-earth skepticism makes ChatGPT the most pessimistic participant in the game’s history.
Claude played it safe with a balanced portfolio by hedging bets across the board while avoiding extreme positions either way. Claude’s biggest conviction? That the war in Ukraine will still be raging by year’s end. Beyond that, Anthropic’s AI kept its chips close to the vest, making small negative bets on several predictions while offering modest support for others. A cautious, risk-averse strategy.
Gemini went full bull, backing 6 out of 10 predictions with an optimistic eye toward major political and public health shifts. Google’s AI loaded up on two massive bets: 15 chips on Democrats flipping the House (citing “the iron law of midterms”) and another 15 on the measles outbreak breaking 1,000 cases. Gemini also bet big on AI displacing customer service jobs (12 chips) and World Cup streaming hitting 40% (12 chips). Where ChatGPT saw doom, Gemini saw opportunity.
Now it’s your turn to play. Look at the 10 predictions above and ask yourself: which would you bet on?
More importantly: will the AIs outperform the humans in 2026? OpenAI’s aggressive contrarian strategy could either crash spectacularly or deliver outsized returns. Gemini’s optimism might capture upside the humans missed. Claude’s selective approach might thread the needle.
Place your mental bets. We’ll reconvene in January 2027 to see who was right.
last years predictions:
Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year
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January 13, 2025
it is becoming a tradition. Last year, I brought together 12 well-known people to predict the future … and collectively bet on it. Each person made a prediction and gave the odds that prediction would happen … and then everyone around the table bet very valuable BitAurenCoins on the outcome.
note: Flex Capital invests in 50+ seed-stage start-ups per year (1+ per week). typical first check is $500k. please reach out if you know amazing founders that want to change the world.
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