Does Forecasting Have Room At The Top? - By Scott Alexander

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Can AI forecasters become dramatically better than the best humans, or are we already close to the limits of predictability? Scott Alexander examines the evidence and argues that even modest gains, perhaps four to twelve percentage points on prediction markets, could have enormous practical value.

• 00:00 - Introduction

• 02:07 - Slightly Contra Goel, Reeves, et al

• 08:18 - Applying The Non-Miracle Rule To Geopolitics

• 11:34 - Anchors For Possible Non-Miraculous Gains

• 18:42 - So What?

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