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Arin’s Substack · May 12, 2026

There has been essentially no real wage growth under Trump 2.0

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Arin Dube · Arin’s Substack

Today’s CPI print came in hot, which is in large part due to a self-created supply shock (the war against Iran). What this means is that rapidly rising prices are quickly eating into paychecks.

The average hourly wage for private-sector workers in April 2026 was $37.41. When Trump took office in January 2025, it was $37.35 (in April 2026 dollars, i.e., adjusted for inflation). So, there has been essentially zero real wage growth under Trump 2.0, thanks to the rapid rise in prices over the past 2 months. This is an incredible act of economic self-harm conducted by the president of the United States.

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