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The $SOXX ripped 13% last week. $SPY reclaimed the majority of its losses. And everyone spent the week talking about Nvidia’s earnings.
They missed the point.
Nvidia crushed it — 75% gross margins, another beat, another drop after hours. Same script, eighth quarter in a row. But the three events that actually matter for where this goes next had nothing to do with Nvidia. And I don’t think most people are aware of all three, let alone the depth of what they mean.
Let’s get into it.
$SPY reclaims the majority of last week’s losses
$SOXX rips 13% — equal-weight semis leading the charge
Samsung avoids strike at the 11th hour — DRAM supply threat removed
$DELL surges 15% — hardware cycle broadening confirmed
$ARM ripping — Nvidia partnership not yet priced in
30-year yield pulling back from highs — tight correlation with $SPY continues
Hyperscaler spending shifting from GPUs into CPUs, servers, and storage infrastructure
$STX sold off hard after flagging supply buildout concerns at JP Morgan conference
$NVDA following its usual post-earnings script — crushed numbers, stock drops
The macro is getting less murky. The fundamentals are getting stronger. The technicals are confirming both.
Before we get into setups I want to spend time on what I think most people missed this week — because these three things change the roadmap for semis and hardware more than anything Nvidia said on Wednesday night.
At an event in Taipei that most people weren’t even watching, AMD’s CEO said the CPU market is growing more than 35% annually over the next five years. To put that in context — on AMD’s last conference call she said 30% annually. It’s already growing faster than she thought.
Just six to twelve months ago, nobody was talking about a CPU shortage. Now it’s the primary bottleneck. And here’s the part that really matters: even if hyperscalers keep their spending flat — which they’re probably not — where those chips go is shifting dramatically. From GPUs into CPUs. From training into inference. The spend isn’t going away. It’s rotating.
On the Nvidia conference call, listen to how many times Jensen mentioned CPU. Over and over again. A GPU company telling you it’s a CPU company. They’re speeding up their CPU launch by a full quarter — from Q4 to Q3 — and partnering with $ARM to get there. Bernstein upgraded $ARM ahead of Nvidia’s print because they saw this coming.
If Nvidia uses its distribution model to push $ARM architecture into every CPU deployment, what does that do to $ARM revenues? People are looking at the valuation and saying it doesn’t make sense. They’re not asking the right question.
Samsung controls roughly 40% of all memory chip supply. A full strike would have been a real supply shock. Instead, they reached an 11th hour deal. And the read-through is not that DRAM prices drop — it’s that supply stability was preserved in an environment where demand is already outpacing capacity.
SK Hynix offered ASML 15% above machine price just to get equipment delivered faster. These are $400 million machines. They are paying a premium above list price to get them sooner. That is not what you do when demand is slowing.
When the GPU king calls itself a CPU company, AMD says the market is growing faster than she predicted, and the world’s largest memory supplier narrowly avoids a production shutdown — all in the same week — you pay attention.
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CPU market growing 35%+ annually for five years — faster than anyone predicted
$INTC back above its 12-day moving average — range now between $100 and $133
$AMD cup and handle forming on the weekly — range between $391 and $475
Most people are still thinking about this as a GPU story. The money is rotating into CPU. $AMD and $INTC are the most direct expressions of that trade. This is the setup I think has the most runway over the next 6 to 12 months.
Samsung deal removes the supply shock risk — pricing pressure stays intact
$EWY trading at 12-13x earnings with Samsung and SK Hynix as core holdings
DRAM pricing up roughly 10x — and the CPU buildout is going to need significantly more memory
People look at how far $MU and $SNDK have run and say they missed it. They’re not looking at what the demand curve looks like five years out as CPU deployments scale. I’m still long and the thesis hasn’t changed.
Lenovo reported a 21 billion AI server pipeline with demand outpacing supply — direct read-through to $DELL
$DELL surged 15% on Friday — Lenovo’s results were the real catalyst
$HPE breaking out — Juniper acquisition growing 150% year-over-year, now a third of revenues
The hyperscaler money is not disappearing. It’s moving from GPUs into servers, storage, and networking infrastructure. $DELL and $HPE are the next boxes in that sequence. $DELL reports this week — Lenovo already gave you the read-through.
$NVDA speeding up CPU launch from Q4 to Q3 — partnering with $ARM on architecture
If Nvidia uses its distribution model to push $ARM into every CPU deployment, revenues scale dramatically
Bernstein upgraded ahead of Nvidia earnings — they saw this coming
People are looking at $ARM’s valuation and saying it’s too expensive. That’s the wrong framework. The question is where revenues go if Nvidia’s distribution puts $ARM architecture into every major CPU deployment. Watch for analyst upgrades to accelerate.
Equal-weight semis ($ESOX) breaking out ahead of AI−weighted semis ($ASOX)
Every time $ESOX leads, $ASOX breaks out the next session — happened again this week
$TXN breaking out. $ADI starting to turn. Analog names broadening the rally
When the equal-weight leads the AI-weighted index, the rally is broadening. This is not a one or two stock story anymore. The entire semiconductor complex is rotating higher — and the analog names are the last to move. That’s where I’m looking for the next entry.
$DELL Earnings
Lenovo already gave you the setup. Watch AI server commentary and management guidance on infrastructure demand.
$MU / $SNDK
Samsung deal removes supply risk. DRAM pricing stays elevated. The thesis is intact.
$ARM
Nvidia CPU partnership is not priced in. Watch for analyst upgrades and any commentary on architecture licensing deals.
30-Year Yield
Correlation with $SPY remains tight. Any move back above 5% is a headwind worth watching.
Three events this week — AMD’s CPU supercycle call, Samsung’s 11th hour deal, and Lenovo’s AI server blowout — just redrew the map for semis and hardware.
The macro is getting clearer. The fundamentals are getting stronger. And the rotation inside the semiconductor complex — from AI-weighted names into equal-weight, analog, and CPU-adjacent names — is telling you exactly where the next leg of this trade is going.
The hyperscaler money isn’t going away. It’s just moving. Figure out where it’s moving next and be there before everyone else is.
The full breakdown — including the DRAM pricing thesis, the hardware broadening trade, and how to position heading into $DELL earnings — is on YouTube now.
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