🔮 Predictions

This is my predictions page. Read my blog post about why I create this page.

Each line is a prediction that follows the pattern: [year of the prediction] Statement (reference1;reference2).

I predict …

On climate

[2024] Greenhouse gas emssions will increase at least until 2030. CO2 concentration will increase on average 2 ppm per year (gap25). Atmospheric CO2 concentration will be at least 435ppm on average in May 2030 at Mauna Loa. You can check current values at NOAA.
[2024] In the 2030s, the World Meteorological Organization will declare that the world has passed the 1.5°C climate Paris target.
[2024] Between 2045-2055, the Arctic will start to become ice free in September.
[2024] By mid century, the Earth’s global average surface temperature will increase to 1.9°C above the average for the pre-industrial comparison period of 1880-1920 (sp25).
[2024] Net zero emissions will not be reached by mid century (smil24).
[2024] By the end of this century, the Earth’s global average surface temperature will increase to 2.7°C above the average for the pre-industrial comparison period of 1880-1920. Overall consensus from the scientific community that several key climate tipping points have been exceeded, including the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (esd25). As a result, the Earth system appears to be locked onto a “Hothouse Earth” trajectory. You can check the Planetary Health Check.
[2025] By the end of 21st century, the Arctic Ocean will be free of sea ice for several months each summer (col25).

On energy/food systems

[2024] Global oil production will reach all time maximum of 105 million barrels per day (mb/d). Global energy mix will continue to be until mid-century based on fossil fuels (+50%), with a large increase in gas production and small decrease in oil (bloombergNEF25), (bp25).
[2025] Decline in urban water availability in most parts of the world (actuaries25), (who25).
[2025] Lake Mead will reach “dead pool” status during the early 2040s. At this critical point, the water level will drop below elevation 273m, rendering the dam unable to physically release water downstream to California, Arizona, and Mexico. Prolonged dead pool condition in late 2040s. See graph.

on biodiversity

[2024] By mid century, some large mammals species like Elephant, Lions, Gorillas will be extinct from natural habitats. You can check the Living Planet Index (LPI).
[2025] By mid century, more than 90% of the world’s coral reefs will be extinct.

On technology

[2024] Most new technological devices designed for human interaction will feature integrated Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) to “enhance” online identity verification processes.
[2024] By 2030, nearly all Europeans will use digital wallets based on the eIDAS framework, necessitating proprietary devices with Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) (ccc38) (govuk25).
[2024] By the end of this decade, most developed countries will adopt central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), requiring corresponding proprietary digital wallets (ccc38) (ds25).
[2024] In the next decade, over 90% of home appliances (including refrigerators, microwaves, ovens, and washing machines) will incorporate 5G/LoRaWAN/802.11ah connectivity. Many companies will begin offering appliance-as-a-service models. Almost all of these smart appliances with screens will display personalized advertisements when not in active use, creating new revenue streams for manufacturers (samsung25).
[2024] In the 2030s, major web services will likely eliminate online anonymity by requiring digital identity verification through standardized APIs like the W3C Digital Credentials API (webkit25). This will enable websites to request government-issued or institutional digital credentials, transforming pseudonymous internet interactions into verified identity exchanges with traceable digital signatures.
[2024] Commercial nuclear fusion will never be archivable.
[2024] Humans will never visit Mars on any other planet.
[2025] In the 2030s, most European municipalities will implement Pay As You Throw (PAYT) waste management systems, creating vast amounts of household waste data. This data will become increasingly valuable, leading to the emergence of specialized data brokers who will collect, analyze, and sell detailed information about citizens’ waste generation patterns.

On societies

[2024] Human population will peak before mid century, reaching a maximum of 9.5B billion people, with a rapid decrease after that.
[2025] As older, wealthier generations tend to vote for politicians who protect their interests, younger generations with lower economic power often find themselves disadvantaged in the political landscape. As a result, I predict that inter generational inequality and disillusionment among younger voters will increase. This disparity would result in a growing disconnect between younger voters and the political system as a whole, leading to decreased political engagement and participation (gerontocracy).

On economics

[2024] After 2040, the retirement age will be around 70+ years in most of the develop countries (mgi2025).
[2024] The 2030s will be the lost decade from most developed countries. The world economy can be expected to produce fewer goods and services per person. Fewer people will be able to afford new cars or new homes, the home/car price-to-income ratio will increase.
[2026] In the 2030s, most of the USA companies will use stablecoins as a common form of payment for most online transactions (GENIUS Act). Since stablecoins are backed by treasury bonds, this will force foreigners to buy US treasury bonds to use stablecoins.

What do you think? Feel free to contact me to discuss this and other predictions.