publisher={Springer}

}

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author = {Stephen E. Spear and Sanjay Srivastava},

title = {{On Repeated Moral Hazard with Discounting}},

journal = {Review of Economic Studies},

year = 1987,

volume = {54},

number = {4},

pages = {599-617},

month = {},

keywords = {},

doi = {10.2307/2297484},

abstract = {In this paper, we analyze optimal contracts in an infinitely repeated agency model in which both the principal and agent discount the future. We show that there is a stationary representation of the optimal contract when the agent's conditional discounted expected utility is used as a state variable. This representation reduces the multi-period problem to a static variational problem which can be analyzed using standard variational techniques. This reduction is used to obtain several properties of the contract.},

url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v54y1987i4p599-617..html}

}

@article{Phelan_Townsend_91,

author = {Christopher Phelan and Robert M. Townsend},

title = {{Computing Multi-Period, Information-Constrained Optima}},

journal = {Review of Economic Studies},

year = 1991,

volume = {58},

number = {5},

pages = {853-881},

month = {},

keywords = {},

doi = {10.2307/2297941},

abstract = {This paper presents a detailed theoretical derivation and justification for methods used to compute solutions to a multi-period (including infinite-period), continuum-agent, unobservedeffort economy. Actual solutions are displayed illustrating cross-sectional variability in consumption and labour effort in the population at a point in time and variability for a typical individual over time. The optimal tradeoff between insurance and incentives is explored and the issue of excess variability is addressed by consideration of the analogue full-information economy and various restricted-contracting regimes.},

url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v58y1991i5p853-881..html}

}

@article{PhelanStacchetti2001,

author={Christopher Phelan and Ennio Stacchetti},

title={Sequential Equilibria in a Ramsey Tax Model},

pages = {1041-1063}

}

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author = {Dilip Abreu and David Pearce and Ennio Stacchetti},

title = {Optimal Cartel Equilibria with Imperfect Monitoring},

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volume = {39},

number = {1},

pages = {251--269},

year = {1986},

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doi = {10.1016/0022-0531(86)90028-1}

}

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title = {Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend},

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number = {1},

pages = {69--102},

year = {2007},

doi = {10.1086/511283}

}

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author = {Andrew Atkeson},

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journal = {Econometrica},

volume = {59},

number = {4},

pages = {1069--1089},

year = {1991},

doi = {10.2307/2938174}

}

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author = {Andrew Atkeson and Robert E. Lucas, Jr.},

title = {On Efficient Distribution with Private Information},

journal = {Review of Economic Studies},

volume = {59},

number = {3},

pages = {427--453},

year = {1992},

doi = {10.2307/2297858}

}

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author = {Jeremy Bulow and Kenneth Rogoff},

title = {A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt},

journal = {Journal of Political Economy},

volume = {97},

number = {1},

pages = {155--178},

year = {1989},

doi = {10.1086/261596}

}

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author = {Jeremy Bulow and Kenneth Rogoff},

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volume = {79},

number = {1},

pages = {43--50},

year = {1989}

}

@article{EatonGersowitz1981,

author = {Jonathan Eaton and Mark Gersovitz},

title = {Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis},

journal = {Review of Economic Studies},

volume = {48},

number = {2},

pages = {289--309},

year = {1981}

}

@article{EichengreenPortes1986,

author = {Barry Eichengreen and Richard Portes},

title = {Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences},

journal = {European Economic Review},

volume = {30},

number = {3},

pages = {599--640},

year = {1986}

}

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author = {Drew Fudenberg and Bengt Holmstrom and Paul Milgrom},

title = {Short-Term Contracts and Long-Term Agency Relationships},

journal = {Journal of Economic Theory},

volume = {51},

number = {1},

pages = {1--31},

year = {1990},

doi = {10.1016/0022-0531(90)90048-O}

}

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author = {Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff},

title = {North-South Lending and Endogenous Domestic Capital Market Inefficiencies},

journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},

volume = {26},

number = {2},

pages = {245--266},

year = {1990},

doi = {10.1016/0304-3932(90)90022-V}

}

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author = {Sanford J. Grossman and Oliver D. Hart},

title = {An Analysis of the Principal-Agent Problem},

journal = {Econometrica},

volume = {51},

number = {1},

pages = {7--45},

year = {1983},

doi = {10.2307/1912246}

}

@article{GrossmanVanHuyck1988,

author = {Herschel I. Grossman and John B. Van Huyck},

title = {Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation},

journal = {American Economic Review},

volume = {78},

number = {5},

pages = {1088--1097},

year = {1988}

}

@incollection{LindertMorton1989,

author = {Peter H. Lindert and Peter J. Morton},

title = {How Sovereign Debt Has Worked},

booktitle = {Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System},

editor = {Jeffrey D. Sachs},

publisher = {University of Chicago Press},

pages = {39--106},

year = {1989}

}

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volume = {52},

number = {2},

pages = {345--380},

year = {2005},

doi = {10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.04.011}

}

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title = {The First-Order Approach to Principal-Agent Problems},

journal = {Econometrica},

volume = {53},

number = {6},

pages = {1357--1367},

year = {1985},

doi = {10.2307/1913212}

}

@article{ThomasWorrall1990,

author = {Jonathan Thomas and Tim Worrall},

title = {Income Fluctuation and Asymmetric Information: An Example of a Repeated Principal-Agent Problem},

journal = {Journal of Economic Theory},

volume = {51},

number = {2},

pages = {367--390},

year = {1990}

}

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year = {2013},

doi = {10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.11.006}

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@article{HarrisonKreps1979,

author={Harrison, J. Michael and Kreps, David M.},

title={Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets},

}

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author = {Barry Eichengreen and Richard Portes},

title = {Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences},

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year = {1986},

volume = {30},

number = {3},

pages = {599--640}

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title={Survey data and subjective beliefs in business cycle models},

author={Bhandari, Anmol and Borovi{\v{c}}ka, Jaroslav and Ho, Paul},

journal={Review of Economic Studies},

volume={92},

number={3},

pages={1375--1437},

year={2025},

publisher={Oxford University Press UK}

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author = {Bhandari, Anmol and Borov{\v{c}}ka, Jaroslav and Ho, Paul},

title = {Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models},

journal = {Review of Economic Studies},

year = {2024},

volume = {91},

number = {3},

pages = {1359--1395},

doi = {10.1093/restud/rdad082},

note = {NBER Working Paper No.\ 25192}

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title = {Ambiguous Business Cycles},

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year = {2005},

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@book{Shimer2010,

author = {Shimer, Robert},

title = {Labor Markets and Business Cycles},

publisher = {Princeton University Press},

year = {2010},

series = {CREI Lectures in Macroeconomics}

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author = {Schmidt, Lawrence D. W.},

title = {Climbing and Falling Off the Ladder: Asset Pricing

Implications of Labor Market Event Risk},

institution = {University of California, San Diego},

type = {Working Paper},

year = {2016}

}

@article{MankiwReisWolfers2003,

author = {Mankiw, N. Gregory and Reis, Ricardo and Wolfers, Justin},

title = {Disagreement about Inflation Expectations},

journal = {NBER Macroeconomics Annual},

year = {2003},

volume = {18},

pages = {209--248},

doi = {10.1086/ma.18.3585256}

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@article{RavennaWalsh2008,

author = {Ravenna, Federico and Walsh, Carl E.},

title = {Vacancies, Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve},

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year = {2008},

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title = {Examining Macroeconomic Models through the Lens of Asset Pricing},

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title = {Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process:

A Simple Framework and New Facts},

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