The Potential Environmental Danger of AI Use
First thing's first, this is very much a back of a napkin set of calculations. The data is not clear, but I'm working with what I can.
My main data point is that GPT-3 uses a 500ml bottle of water for roughly 10-50 responses.
Lets try and measure the impact of GPT-5 based on this. I'm going to take two approaches. I'm also going to be pessimistic and say that, based on the study above, 50 responses = 500ml, or 1 response = 10ml.
- Compare based on parameter count
- Compare based on created media
Parameter Count
This is the least accurate method. I'm going to claim a 1:1 ratio between parameter count and water use. In the absence of other data.
GPT-3 has 175 billion parameters. So we will also say that, one 175 billion parameter response = 10ml of water.
Looking at each generation of GPT, we get the following water use, per response.
| Year | GPT | Parameters | Water use |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | GPT-1 | 117million | 0.007ml |
| 2019 | GPT-2 | 1.5billion | 0.086ml |
| 2020 | GPT-3 | 175 billion | 10ml |
| 2022 | GPT-4 | 1.76 trillion | 100.6ml |
| 2024 | GPT-5 | 17.6 trillion | 1 liter |
We're seeing that essentially every 2 years or so, the parameters x10, as does the water use.
This is at a time where where over 50% of the world experiences water stress at least once a year, and huge cities like Mexico City are months away from running out of water.
Obviously, this is all very much "back of a napkin" style calculations. If this trend continues till 2030, just three more generational leaps for AI, we'll be consuming 1000 litres of water per response.
These aren't facts, but I don't hear many AI enthusiasts worrying about this, so I'm trying to sound the siren.
Some questions that would be useful to have answered.
For you, the reader
- what benefit are you truly getting from AI?
- do you believe it's worth this potential impact?
- do you believe it's worth the theft that went into it?
- are you comfortable creating a culture where theft and environmental impact are acceptable consequences of doing business?
For the AI company
- are there plans to significantly improve or eliminate the environmental impact of AI?
- we're seeing AI responses move from text, to image, to video. These will mean an acceleration again of these numbers. How will you mitigate this?