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Riverstone · Jul 15, 2025

Is the Bitcoin Treasury Craze a Bubble or a New Paradigm?

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AJ · Riverstone

Last week, Bitcoin blasted through its previous all-time high, briefly trading above $123,000 before settling near $120,000. This summer’s rally, up nearly 30% in 2025, has been fueled by a convergence of factors: a favorable macro backdrop (including dollar weakness), renewed optimism around U.S. crypto legislation (“Crypto Week” in Congress), and the ongoing rollout of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

In this climate, a novel investment narrative has taken hold: Bitcoin treasury companies. Firms from MicroStrategy (MSTR) to Metaplanet have shifted their corporate treasuries into Bitcoin, letting BTC holdings drive their market capitalizations rather than revenues or earnings.

Companies are buying bitcoin, Q2 2025 edition (link)
  1. Inflation hedge
    With global central banks still expanding balance sheets, CFOs view Bitcoin as a better long-term store of value than sitting cash.

  2. Investor narrative
    “Bitcoin is behaving in line with the widely held narrative - as a hedge against monetary debasement,” says Simon Peters, eToro crypto analyst.

  3. Leverage opportunities

    • MicroStrategy (MSTR): Holds ~601,550 BTC (~2.9% of supply) and in March 2022 took a $205M, BTC-collateralized loan to buy more Bitcoin.

    • Metaplanet: Japan’s leading treasury firm added 1,088 BTC this year, achieving a 225% return on its BTC strategy.

  • Bull markets: Rising BTC prices can double-digit lift treasury companies’ stock prices, rewarding early adopters.

  • Bear markets: Because corporate expenses and debt are denominated in fiat, a sudden correction can trigger margin calls or forced sales, especially for firms using BTC-backed loans.

  • Total corporate BTC: ~847,000 BTC (~4% of 21 million)

  • Largest holder (MSTR): ~2.9%; all others < 1% each

  • Price influence: Corporate treasury activity accounts for just 0.6% of daily BTC price moves.

So the good news is that a cascading drawdown might not have as big of an effect as it seems. Additionally, the new crop of crypto-linked convertibles also gives bond investors a way to take longer-term views on the asset class, without risking a complete wipeout if it crashes.

New data shows corporate Bitcoin holders have almost no impact on market price (link)

In a prolonged downturn, operational cash flow will separate the winners from the losers. Firms with sustainable earnings can hold through volatility - those riding solely on BTC appreciation risk painful write-downs and potential insolvency.

If Bitcoin’s next 20% leg higher continues, treasury plays may keep outperforming. But if regulatory setbacks or macro shocks trigger a correction, over-leveraged firms could face painful write-downs.

💬 What’s your take on Bitcoin treasury strategies - are they the next frontier in corporate finance or a bubble ready to pop?

- Riverstone Team

Get in touch: riverstone.one | Follow us on X: @Riverstone_one

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Read the original on apetown.substack.com

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