Hims: Data Wins.

Whoever owns biomarkers owns healthcare.

Share

A company can outgrow its prior financial mould without outgrowing its value creation process. Hims has done this in Q1 2026 by becoming a two side operating system. The company’s previous financial model was total pills sold and now it’s total tokens delivered, as Hims becomes the intelligence layer that connects supply and demand in the healthcare system. To maximise free cash flow per share, Hims has to prioritise proprietary data over short term profits in order to deliver more value per token than generic AI models.

Claude is pretty good at delivering healthcare insights if you throw your biomarkers at it. The long term business opportunity is building an infrastructure that harvests biomarkers at a level of scale and quality that others cannot. At the network level, this is what allows you to train whatever frontier model to generate superior insights and deliver more value per token. More patients and more biomarkers than anyone means your proprietary AI becomes biologically more predictive. Long term, this is how you build the healthcare AI that front runs every other AI.

This puts you in a dominant distribution position because customers don’t care about second best, especially when it’s a matter of life or death. This is where the ability to charge extra per token stems from and thus, the new financial model is:

1. Number of tokens.

2. Multiplied by net margin per token.

This will serve as the best proxy for Hims’s free cash flow per share over the next decade, rising exponentially as both demand and supply lean ever deeper into the intelligence layer. The moat is the increasing difficulty of replicating the physical infrastructure required to bootstrap the biomarker Ontology, a barrier that compounds every quarter. And it compounds further still because the signals extracted from the physical layer feed directly back into making that same infrastructure bigger, better and harder to replicate.

Over time this flywheel will spin faster and faster. The more biomarkers the network produces, the faster the physical infrastructure evolves, printing even more and better biomarkers in return. This is not a quarterly play. It is a multi-trillion dollar, multi-decade wealth creation event.

Ontology Velocity is the single most important metric for Hims.

Investors have spent a great deal of time and energy focused on short term GLP-1 dynamics. As a subset of peptides, ex-legal dynamics which I dare not model, we will tend to see this part of the operation as a structurally deflationary one. As bio/acc goes mainstream, this will tend to be true for any healthcare offering. However, the pricing power of superior tokens will rise over time. Value is accruing to the network.

⚡ If you enjoyed the post, please feel free to share with friends, drop a like and leave me a comment.

You can also reach me at:

Twitter: @alc2022

LinkedIn: antoniolinaresc

These are opinions only of the individual author. The contents of this piece do not contain investment advice and the information provided is for educational purposes only and no discussions constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of any company. All content is purely subjective and you should do your own due diligence.

Antonio Linares makes no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness or reasonableness of the information contained in the piece. Any assumptions, opinions and estimates expressed in the piece constitute judgments of the author as of the date thereof and are subject to change without notice. Any projections contained in the Information are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected outcomes will be achieved. Antonio Linares does not accept any liability for any direct, consequential or other loss arising from reliance on the contents of this presentation. Antonio Linares is not acting as your financial, legal, accounting, tax or other adviser or in any fiduciary capacity.