Friday 📸: Portfolio Review, New Trades

Good Morning and an I’m-chuffed-you’re-here welcome to the new subscribers.

Brief note today - let’s get it.

The portfolio hasn’t moved this past week amidst the alternate calls for crashes up and down. I don’t see either scenario playing out. I see rotating flows of capital.

I have entered two bullish options positions on two different wheat contracts - Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat (KE) and Soft Red Winter Wheat (ZW).

I knew you’d ask - the difference is that the soft variety has low protein and weak gluten, so it’s often used for pastries, cakes, cookies, crackers — and often blended with other wheat flour to produce baguettes and other breads.

Hard red winter wheat is the most widely produced varietal in the US, and has higher protein content. Think sandwiches, pizza dough… in fact always think about sandwiches and pizza dough. Great.

Just peaking above that prior high here this morning, we’ll see if it can hold and close the week here. Volatility is relatively low, so we’re taking an options trade with the $750 calls at the September expiry.

I definitely need to do some more backtesting and develop some better signals for wheat - if we zoom way out - you can see how many times over the last 40 years wheat price has broken up through our favorite Ichimoku cloud indicator… sometimes it breaks higher, but just as often breaks down. (All the orange dots indicate when price broke upward through the weekly cloud.)

And here’s the chart of the soft stuff:

Not as convincing until price breaks above that prior high, but worth a shot. We grabbed November calls at $750 on ZW. (Details are in the portfolio table below.)

As I write this, it looks like another red day in tech - but keep in mind - higher highs in money supply means that capital will continue to flow somewhere. The primary trend in M2 (cash, checking, savings deposits, money market accounts) is UP.

See you this weekend,

-Andy

Swing Portfolio Year-to-Date Performance: +12.96%