Rod Serling: The place is here, the time is now, and the journey into the shadows that we’re about to watch could be our journey.
Rod Serling: Up there, up there in the vastness of space, in the void that is sky, up there is an enemy known as isolation. It sits there in the stars waiting, waiting with the patience of eons, forever waiting... in the Twilight Zone.
- The Twilight Zone, Season 1, Episode 1: Where is Everybody?
The US Dollar has put our portfolios into a drawdown period - and if it continues to climb higher and break above the cloud, we will need to re-position. As the market has been rotating, so have we… slowly, selectively, strategically.
Honestly, looking at that chart above - the Dollar looks like a buy. I need to see what happens next week, after the Fed meeting dust settles a bit.
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Earlier this week we entered new long positions on White Sugar futures $W, homebuilders , real estate , Peru stocks and airlines . Many of these trades appeared to be breaking out, and have now fallen back into a range. Might be false starts across the board. We’ll see.
We also re-entered our short Silver position as the weekly close seemed to confirm the downtrend.
We closed positions in crude oil $MCL, $VIX calls, Iron Ore futures $SCI, natural gas producers $FCG, and our star performer aluminum producers and . This is mostly just our stop orders doing their job - keeping losses small.
This rotation, based on technical analysis and risk management, reflects a murky and twilight macro reality. Treasury yields have been cooling off, oil is starting to flow through Hormuz, and the sluggish Chinese consumer economy has taken the air out of most commodity trades — at least for now.
We remain open-minded and agnostic. We don’t care where capital flows, only following it and cutting our losses. With a bit of re-positioning this week, now it’s time to wait, watch the cloud of the market shape shift and adopt an appositional position.
See you this weekend,
-Andy
Swing Portfolio YTD Performance: 11.30%
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