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Bitcoin Macro · Jul 16, 2024

American Gladiator

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Andrew Axelrod · Bitcoin Macro

Say what you want… nobody does high-octane drama like America.

Political assassinations, social media induced riots, storming of the Capitol building, Airplanes crashing into skyscrapers, Hawk Tuah Girl…

But this isn’t GTA 6, it’s real life.

The former president had his ear shot off, narrowly escaping the 0.223 Remington round from penetrating his skull and carefully constructed comb-over.

We came this 👌 close to seeing Trump’s head explode into a pink mist on live TV.

Instead, his face splattered with blood, he defiantly fist pumps the air: “Fight! Fight!”

The crowd roars and erupts into chants of “USA! USA!”

America is wild.

One inch.

That’s how much the bullet missed Trump’s head by, the edge of a quarter.

One inch.

That’s the difference between civil war and Bitcoin surging to $65K.

Yes, markets ripped on the news, they loved the failed assassination attempt.

That’s because the consensus says Trump, self-proclaimed “King of Debt,” will treat the national coffers much the same as his personal finances. That’s to say: Heaps of debt, cheap credit, growing deficits, surging asset prices. Markets are already starting to price in this expectation. Let the good times roll.

Especially crypto and tech stocks are salivating.

Polymarket now puts a Trump victory at 71% probability.

Dramatic events have dramatic outcomes.

And again, nobody does drama better than the ol’ US of A.

This includes colorful conspiracy theories, which predictably flourish in the aftermath of such dramatic events. July 13th is no exception.

There’s mainly two contradictory contenders, and they’re as follows:

  1. King of Rohan (LOTR homies will get it)

Biden is the decrepit old king, an empty and diseased shell of his former self, howling against the dying of the light. His administration is the purest expression of the deep state, desperately clinging to power by any dirty and corrupt means necessary - this includes lawfare, kangaroo courts, imprisoning the political opposition, and yes, even murder. The deep state’s assassination attempt having failed, Trump will emerge victorious and Biden, no longer useful to the system, will be abandoned to rot somewhere in Martha's Vineyard, marinating in his own filth.

  1. Orange Hitler

Trump is orange Hitler and has staged an assassination attempt on his own life, his version of burning down the Reichstag. He’s a master manipulator of media and is using the heroic imagery of this carefully orchestrated event to coronate himself as MAGA king for life. This will be the last free and fair election of our lifetimes.

Conspiracies are fun to indulge.

In fact, let me offer up a third:

  1. You Don’t Mess With The Zohan

Presidents who seriously oppose the central bank get whacked (in historical order):

Andrew Jackson is famous for his hatred of central banks: “The bold effort the present (central) bank had made to control the government . . . are but premonitions of the fate that await the American people should they be deluded into a perpetuation of this institution or the establishment of another like it.”

Guess what happened?

An assassin fired two pistols at Jackson’s back. Both misfired, and Jackson, being the badas* he is, severely beat the assassin with his walking stick. This was the first assassination attempt of a sitting president in US history.

James Garfield shared similar sentiments with regards to centrally planned money: “Whoever controls the volume of money in our country is absolute master of all industry and commerce...when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.”

Guess what happened?

Shot in the back. This time there was no misfire. Garfield died a slow and painful death, wasting away from a plump 210 pounds to a bony 130 pounds during the last 80 days of his life.

William McKinley was a hard money advocate, signing the Gold Standard Act into law and establishing gold as the sole basis of the monetary order.

Guess what happened?

You got it, also shot. Twice, in the abdomen.

John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 11110 on June 4, 1963. This was the first step towards eliminating the use of Federal Reserve Notes and replacing them with silver certificates, thus transferring power from the Federal Reserve to the US Treasury. They didn’t like that.

Guess what happened?

Had his head blown off that same year.

His brother also got whacked, just for good measure.

Donald Trump begins accepting donations from the crypto industry in May and announces that he’s attending the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in late July. Not only that, Bitcoin has now become an official GOP platform agenda item: “We will defend the right to mine bitcoin, and ensure every American has the right to self-custody of their digital assets, and transact free from government surveillance and control.”

Trump gets clipped just weeks later.

Ok, ok. I hear you.

It’s a bit of stretch that Trump was shot because of his love for Bitcoin.

Then again, on a balance of probabilities, I’ll take my conspiracy over the other two knucklehead theories any day. Let’s review:

  1. King of Rohan - Would the deep state use some loser 20-year-old nerd who can’t nail a shot from 130 yards out? My guess is no. Now, Lee Harvey Oswald on the other hand… Former marine sharpshooter who got off three rounds with an old Italian bolt action rifle in only six seconds and scored two hits, including a head shot… That’s what a serious government asset would look like.

  2. Orange Hitler - Uhm, this is almost too dumb to even go into. Anyone who knows anything about guns, knows you can’t orchestrate getting grazed by a bullet. If cross winds were blowing at 5 mph instead of 6 mph that afternoon, Trump’s brains would’ve been scrambled eggs. Who would agree to that? Sure, just shoot me in the ear for a good photo op…

  3. You Don’t Mess With The Zohan - Wow, what do you know. By comparison, this one doesn’t sound so crazy anymore. Especially with top officials like Janet Yellen openly voicing concerns that Trump will collapse the dollar, by putting Bitcoin on a collision course with the legacy financial system. Certainly, powerful factions of the government are extremely hostile to Bitcoin. But targeting Trump over this still somewhat (but increasingly less so) niche issue is still a stretch.

Forget the conspiracies for a moment, fun as they are.

Will orange man actually be a boon to orange coin?

On the one hand, Trump really is The Debt King, and that’s going to be rocket fuel for asset prices, including Bitcoin. His VP pick is also a Bitcoiner with a VC/tech background. On the other hand, courting the Bitcoin vote may have been important in a tight election race, but with Biden looking increasingly likely to lose, the focus may shift towards more traditional economic policies and regulatory stances.

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