Finding the First 32 - 2026 NFL Draft

A big part of the mocking process is first trying to get a handle on who will be drafted in the first round regardless of team.

This exercise will (hopefully) accomplish exactly that. I will give a rundown of each position in the draft, and sort prospects into the following categories:

Lock - 90%+ chance of going Round 1

Probable - 75%

Coinflip - 50%

Maybe - 25%

Dart - 10%

This is not a particularly scientific method — I’m not basing this off of percentage of mock drafts or anything like that. It is simply a general representation of each position based on feel.

At the end, I’ll summarize exactly what the picture looks like with two weeks to go. My hope is this proves useful both for mock drafting and draft betting.

Quarterback

Lock (1): Fernando Mendoza
Coinflip (1): Ty Simpson

This one is pretty cut and dry. Mendoza will be the first pick of the draft, while Simpson is on the Round 1 bubble. The only team that has been strongly linked to him is the Cardinals, so it could come down to them trading back from pick 3 or up from pick 34.

Running Back

Lock (1): Jeremiyah Love
Coinflip (1): Jadarian Price

Love is one of the better RB prospects of the decade, and should not escape the top 10. According to Daniel Jeremiah, Price is the only other starting RB in this class, which could also push him into the late stages of Day 1. Seattle has been the common link at pick 32.

Wide Receiver

Lock (3): Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon
Probable (2): Omar Cooper Jr, KC Concepcion
Coinflip (1): Denzel Boston
Dart (1): Chris Bell

Tate has looked like the consensus top WR throughout the pre-draft process, with Lemon and Tyson jockeying for second. Tyson has some injury issues, but it sounds as though they wouldn’t push him into the second day. Cooper and Concepcion I feel really good about being first-round picks, but they aren’t so clean as prospects where I would consider it a stone lock. Boston seemed like he was falling earlier in the process, but Peter Schrager said there could be 6 WRs off the board by pick 24, and Jeremiah has intimated there is some bounce back to his stock. Bell is someone who may have completed for WR1 in this class had he not suffered a knee injury.

Tight End

Lock (1): Kenyon Sadiq

It is a pretty deep TE class this year, but only Sadiq is really expected to go on Day 1. The other prospects are best served on Day 2 and 3.

Offensive Line

Lock (5): Spencer Fano, Monroe Freeling, Kayden Proctor, Blake Miller, Ola Ioane
Probable (2): Caleb Lomu, Francis Mauigoa
Coinflip (1): Max Iheanachor
Maybe (2): Chase Bisontis, Keylan Rutledge
Dart (2): Emmanuel Pregnon, Gennings Dunker

It is a deep OL class with a lot of names. Mauigoa I have as probable only because of the back issue that required a medical recheck. We won’t really have any way of knowing if this is a Will Johnson-level issue that pushes him out of the first day.

Iheanachor is a great story, but still someone I consider a flip. The last four players are all interior linemen that have a shot to get into the first round, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if they all missed.

Edge

Lock (3): David Bailey, Arvell Reese, Rueben Bain
Probable (2): Keldric Faulk, Akheem Mesidor
Coinflip (2): TJ Parker, Malachi Lawrence
Maybe (1): Cashius Howell
Dart (2): Zion Young, R Mason Thomas

Bain is a potential slider (car crash, short arms), but much like Tyson is still unlikely to escape the first round. Then we have just a bunch of names that could make their way in with varying levels of probability. Mesidor should maybe be in the lock group, but as a 25 year-old with foot and shoulder issues, he is tough to rely on.

Interior DL

Coinflip (1): Kayden McDonald
Maybe (1): Peter Woods
Dart (3): Caleb Banks, Christen Miller, Lee Hunter

It is a really weak class for this group, with Jeremiah claiming only McDonald has a real chance to go in the first. I will add Woods to that group just because he does seem to have some backers, and was a consensus top prospect entering the season. The probability for all of these guys is quite low, and we could easily get none going on Day 1.

Linebacker

Lock (1): Sonny Styles
Coinflip (2): Jacob Rodriguez, Anthony Hill
Maybe (1): CJ Allen

Styles will come off the board quickly in this draft, but the rest of the position group also offers some potential. Rodriguez seems to be a favorite of the scouting community with perfect intangibles and a surprisingly high RAS score at the Combine. Hill has seen some love from the bottom portion of Day 1, and Allen was the top player of that trio heading into this process.

Cornerback

Lock (1): Mansoor Delane
Probable (2): Jermod McCoy, Chris Johnson
Coinflip (1): Colton Hood
Maybe (1): Avieon Terrell
Dart (2): D’Angelo Ponds, Brandon Cisse

Delane is the only rock-solid player we can guarantee makes it on the first day. McCoy is coming off of a knee issue which has received some mixed reviews. Fully healthy, he’s a top-10 player in this class. The result for McCoy will likely impact the rest of the position group, with both Johnson and Hood having fans in the bottom half of Round 1. Johnson’s process has been so clean that I feel comfortable making him probable. Terrell was fringe Round 1, then not in consideration after a rough 40, now back after some context around that 40 has been released. Ponds and Cisse have my attention, but are unlikely to ultimately make it.

Safety

Lock (2): Caleb Downs, Dillon Thieneman
Probable (1): Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
Dart (1): Treydan Stukes

Downs is one of, if not the best, overall “football players” in this class. The only issue he will face has to do with his positional value. Thieneman shouldn’t be too far behind him after an impressive Combine and college career. The overall weakness of this class has a third safety as likely to make it on the first day. Stukes is perhaps more nickelback than safety, but has received enough attention to make this list.

Overall

Lock - 18

Probable - 9

Coinflip - 10

Maybe - 6

Dart - 11

This winds up looking like a pretty interesting class when all is said and done. There are actually a couple more locks/probables than last year, and a handful of less darts. While there is generally a drop off mid-way through the first round in this draft that flattens out to pick 50 or so, it is still fairly clear who the candidates are to go on Day 1.

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